Competing for space? - A multi-criteria scenario framework to model the energy-biodiversity-land nexus for regional renewable energy planning on a German case

Abstract

Background: The need to balance renewable energy supply with biodiversity conservation has become increasingly urgent in light of current climate, energy, and biodiversity crises. However, the development of wind and solar energy often presents trade-offs such as competing for land use and potentially impacting species and habitats. To address these concerns, ‘priority zones’ for bird and bat species have been proposed as spatial designations for early species protection in the regional planning process. However, there are concerns that the areas suitable for wind and solar energy may be limited further, making it difficult to meet state- and regional-specific spatial targets for renewable energy sites. Method: To help decision-makers deal with this challenge, a Multi-Criteria Scenario Framework has been developed and analyzed. It involves a habitat model of priority zones for species conservation and techniques from the intuitive logics scenario planning method. Through a regional case study, various planning criteria were analyzed scenario-driven, such as priority zones for species protection, settlement buffers, and forests. The framework indicates how criteria could be balanced to achieve wind energy spatial targets as well as targets for ground-mounted solar energy with the least possible impact. Results: Results show that compared to other planning criteria, species priority zones had limited competition with spatial wind energy targets. Achieving these targets may require minimal adjustments, such as allowing wind energy in 1-3% of completely protected recreational landscapes. To reconcile land use demands in the energy transition, a balance between ‘green’ protected areas is necessary. Additionally, ground-mounted solar energy could replace some of the wind energy spatial targets while also meeting the overall solar development goals. Conclusions: The framework provides transparency in assessing trade-offs between multiple objectives and helps quantify the ‘costs’ and ‘benefits’ in renewable energy planning. Adapting more flexible planning methods could help resolve the conflict between wind energy and species protection. Joint analysis of the areas needed for wind and solar energy and determining the optimal energy mix are gaining in importance. However, how the benefits of multi-criteria scenarios can be achieved within the confines of preoccupied and siloed organizations remains an ongoing research topic.