Scenario analysis for regional decision-making on sustainable multifunctional land uses

Brown, Iain; Castellazzi, Marie

doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0579-3

Cited by 44 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…quantitative model outputs) reportedly engendered a greater sense of ownership of the process because participants could modify and customise narratives that incorporated local knowledge. The development of scenario 'storyline' narratives therefore provided a crucial step in linking drivers to local variable relationships in a coherent format enhanced by consensus building, supporting previous findings on the role of narratives as bridging mechanisms across epistemological or cultural divides (Brown and Castellazzi, 2014). Further vicarious enhancement of the scenario process was achieved by use of drawings and pictures as visual supports (section 3.2), either for presentation (Mexico and Argentina) or as a device to help construct narratives from the original scenario archetypes (Colombia).…”

Section: Lessons For Community Scenario Planningsupporting

confidence: 77%

Participatory scenario planning for developing innovation in community adaptation responses: three contrasting examples from Latin America

et al. 2016

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Abstract:Environmental change requires adaptive responses that are innovative, forward-looking and anticipatory, in order to meet goals for sustainability in socio-ecological systems. This implies transformative shifts in understanding as conceptualised by the idea of 'double'-or 'triple-loop learning'. Achieving this can be difficult as communities often rely on shorter-term coping mechanisms that purport to maintain the status quo. The use of participatory scenario planning to stimulate forward-looking social learning for adaptation was investigated through three contrasting community case studies on natural resource management in Latin America (in Mexico, Argentina and Colombia). Exploratory scenario narratives that synthesized local knowledge and future perceptions were used iteratively to define response options considered robust across multiple futures. Despite its intensive format, participants in each case agreed that scenario planning enabled a more systematic appraisal of the future. Scenarios facilitated innovation by providing scope to propose new types of responses and associated actions. Differences in local context meant that learning about future change developed in diverse ways, showing a need for a reflexive process. Reframing of key issues characteristic of double-loop learning did occur, albeit through different forms of interaction in each location. However, a shift towards transformative actions characteristic of triple-loop learning was less evident. Achieving this would appear to require ongoing use of scenarios to challenge social norms in light of changing drivers. Use of learning loops as a diagnostic to evaluate adaptive responses provided a useful reference framework although in practice both innovation and consolidative approaches can develop concurrently for responses to different issues.

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Section: Lessons For Community Scenario Planningsupporting

confidence: 77%

Participatory scenario planning for developing innovation in community adaptation responses: three contrasting examples from Latin America

et al. 2016

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“…In the field of assessing multifunctional land use, scenario studies can serve as explorative techniques for envisaging the different potentials, risks and sustainability trade-offs [59]. An aggregated view of the scenario impacts (Figure 3), in which the perceived importance placed on multiple land use functions by stakeholders was considered with a weighing procedure ( Table 3), indicated that a development-oriented intensification of land (agriculture and mining) will mainly benefit the economic dimension, while negatively affecting the social and, in particular, the environmental dimensions.…”

Section: Assessment Of Scenario Impacts (Sustainability Trade-offs)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Knowledge Brokerage for Impact Assessment of Land Use Scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China: Extending and Testing the FoPIA Approach

et al. 2015

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While land serves numerous societal functions and contributes to sustainable development, it is often unclear how these functions are affected by political decisions and common drivers of land use change, such as economic development, climate change and demographic change. This study evaluates alternative land use scenarios in reference to a rural region of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (China), where various processes and decisions have historically triggered unsustainable development. The scientifically tested "Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA)" method is developed further to address specific features of the case study region, and its function as a knowledge-brokerage (KB) tool is evaluated. Three scenarios are developed and analysed in expert workshops. OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2015, 7 5028 "Land intensification: Agriculture" and "Land intensification: Mining" scenarios are found to have mainly negative environmental and social effects and positive economic impacts, while the "Environmental conservation and tourism" scenario is found to more positively affect all three sustainability dimensions. Assessments of methodological phases show that the FoPIA primarily serves to establish the KB process and that the framework particularly benefits from early examinations of scientific results by policy makers.

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“…traditional landuse management that is not necessarily based on maximum profitability) that can be just as important in shaping the local landscape as top-down influences (e.g. Brown and Castellazzi 2014).…”

Section: Scenarios and Landscape Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hulme and Dessai 2008). In a participatory setting, scenarios can therefore be used to develop inclusive and interactive decision making, including a shared realisation of different influencing factors, and whether these factors are either within or outside the control of different participants (Brown and Castellazzi 2014). Nevertheless, it is commonly reported that participatory scenario exercises encounter problems due to the complexity of issues associated with environmental change and the sometimes abstract portrayal of the scenarios to participants (Vervoort et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Visualisation techniques to support public interpretation of future climate change and land-use choices: a case study from N-E Scotland

Wang

Miller

Brown

et al. 2015

International Journal of Digital Earth

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Scenario analysis for regional decision-making on sustainable multifunctional land uses

Cited by 44 publications

References 52 publications

Participatory scenario planning for developing innovation in community adaptation responses: three contrasting examples from Latin America

Participatory scenario planning for developing innovation in community adaptation responses: three contrasting examples from Latin America

Knowledge Brokerage for Impact Assessment of Land Use Scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China: Extending and Testing the FoPIA Approach

Visualisation techniques to support public interpretation of future climate change and land-use choices: a case study from N-E Scotland

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