Saudi-KAU Coupled Global Climate Model: Description and Performance

Almazroui, Mansour; Tayeb, Osama S.; Mashat, Abdulfattah S.; Yousef, Ahmed; Al‐Turki, Yusuf; Abid, Muhammad Adnan; Bafail, Abdullah O.; Ehsan, Muhammad Fahad; Zahed, Adnan Hamza Mohammad; Rahman, M. Ashfaqur; Mohorji, Abduallah M.; Kang, In‐Sik; Noaman, Amin Y.; Omar, Mohamed; Al-roqi, Abdullah M.; Ammar, K.; AL-Ghamdi, Abdullah S. AL-Malaise; Hussein, Mahmoud A.; Katib, Iyad; O’Brien, Enda; Aljohani, Naif Radi; Islam, Md. Nazrul; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Yang, Young‐Min; Alkhalaf, Abdulrahman K.; Ismail, Muhammad; Kucharski, Fred; Assiri, Mazen E.; Ibrahim, Salem; Tippett, Michael K.; Rashid, Irfan Ur; Kamil, Shahzad; Alahmadi, Adel; Atif, Rana Muhammad; Bajunaid, Mohammed A.; Hantoush, Ahmed S.

doi:10.1007/s41748-017-0009-7

Cited by 33 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 89 publications

(57 reference statements)

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“…29 The model spectral truncation horizontal resolution is T42 (corresponding to 128 × 64 horizontal grid-points) with 20 vertical sigma levels. Each ensemble member differs from the others only by its different initial atmospheric conditions based on the NCEP reanalysis dataset.…”

Section: Model Description and Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…28 Most studies are conducted using observational datasets, and the details of the mechanism connecting summertime peninsula rainfall with ENSO are not explored. The current study investigates the summer rainfall mechanism in relationship with ENSO by using a 15-member ensemble of simulations with the Saudi-King Abdulaziz University (KAU) AGCM 29 (see Methods). We also assessed the potential predictability of the model simulated rainfall in the Arabian Peninsula, which is important for local water and agriculture resources.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…30 Moreover, the European centre for mediumrange weather forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal prediction System4 (SYS4) dataset 31 is used to compare regional rainfall PP simulated by the Saudi-KAU model. 29 …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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ENSO relationship to summer rainfall variability and its potential predictability over Arabian Peninsula region

et al. 2018

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The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is considered to be responsible for rainfall predictability in many regions. Some of its regional teleconnections, such as over the Arabian Peninsula in boreal summer (June-August) season, are not well studied. Therefore, in this paper, the relationship between the summer seasonal mean rainfall and ENSO is analyzed with the aid of a 15-member ensemble of simulations using the Saudi-King Abdulaziz University (KAU) Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) for the period 1981-2015. The southwestern peninsula rainfall is linked to the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the central-eastern pacific region. This relationship is established through an atmospheric teleconnection which shows upper-level convergence anomalies over the southern Arabian Peninsula compensating the central-eastern Pacific upper-level divergence anomalies for the warm ENSO phase, and vice-versa for the cold Phase. The upper-level convergence over the southern Arabian Peninsula leads to sinking motion, low-level divergence and consequently to reduced rainfall in the warm phase, while reverse happens in the cold phase. The correlation coefficient between the observed area-averged Niño3.4 index and a Southwestern Arabian Peninsula Rainfall Index (SARI) is −0.43 (statistically significant at 95%). Overall, model shows a potential predictability (PP) of 0.53 for the SARI region. Predictability during El Niño is higher than during La Niña events. This is not only because of a stronger signal, but also noise reduction contributes to the increase of PP in El Niño compared to that of La Niña years.

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Section: Model Description and Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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ENSO relationship to summer rainfall variability and its potential predictability over Arabian Peninsula region

et al. 2018

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“…The results from precipitation composite analysis are consistent with past studies (Mariotti et al 2002;Ineson and Scaife 2009;Shaman and Tziperman 2011;Niranjan Kummar et al 2016) in which it was shown that western Mediterranean, southern Europe and eastern Mediterranean regions receive more (less) than average rainfall during El Niño (La Niña) years. Moreover, in future, the climate models such as Saudi-KAU model (Almazroui et al 2017) may be used to study the impact of other climate modes and circulation patterns on the Mediterranean storm tracks.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multidecadal Changes in the Relationship of Storm Frequency over Euro-Mediterranean Region and ENSO During Boreal Winter

et al. 2017

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Background The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence over Euro-Mediterranean boreal winter season (December to February) precipitation anomalies has changed along the twentieth century. Purpose The precipitation anomalies are closely associated with storm track frequency. The changing relationship between the interannual variability of storm track frequency and ENSO is investigated at interannual and multidecadal timescales. Methods The Melbourne University cyclone tracking scheme (MS) is applied to reanalyse 200-hPa geopotential height (Z200) datasets to track the winter storms over the Euro-Mediterranean region for the period 1950-2016. Results The maximum of climatological storm track frequency is found to prevail in the study domain with large interannual variability. The multidecadal changes show a phase shift in the relationship between storm track frequency and ENSO from the 1950s to the recent decades. The storm track frequency is negatively correlated (-0.24) to ENSO for the early period , whereas it is positively correlated with a maximum correlation value of 0.44 for the recent period . The correlation departure (0.68) between the two periods shows a significant change in the multidecadal relationship between storm track frequency and ENSO. Conclusion The ENSO-associated significant changes are noted in the upper and lower tropospheric height anomalies over the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean sector in the recent period with respect to the earlier period, which may largely influencing the storm activity (Frequency/Intensity) and precipitation anomalies over the Euro-Mediterranean region. The findings of this study can have important implications in Euro-Mediterranean seasonal predictability.

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“…This indicates large uncertainty in the model-estimated precipitation, which, as mentioned earlier, was not free from limitation until now. Therefore, the use of more GCMs including newly developed Saudi-KAU model [40,41] to drive RegCM4 might be helpful to prepare a multimodel ensemble for applicationoriented tasks including rainfall harvesting in the context of climate change in the region. This paper provides a base document on the utility of climate model data.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impact on Monthly Precipitation Wet and Dry Spells in Arid Regions: Case Study over Wadi Al-Lith Basin

Almazroui

Balkhair

Islam

et al. 2017

Advances in Meteorology

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Durations of monthly precipitation wet and dry spells are calculated using historical records and regional climate model (RCM) simulations for the Wadi Al-Lith basin in western Saudi Arabia. The characteristics of durations of wet and dry spells are based on the 50% risk level corresponding to the monthly records for average regional precipitation. The duration of wet spells in the model data is compared with observations for the base period 1971-2000. The impact of climate change on the durations of wet and dry spells is obtained using three global climate models projections with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios downscaled by RCM. The probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the climate model scenarios and the precipitation records for the base period prove that climate change has a clear impact on the durations of wet and dry spells over the study area. There is an increase in wet spells frequency in the far future (2070-2099) compared to the near future . The increase in wet spells can be partly explained by the increase in extreme rainfall events and by the decrease in dry spells expected to occur over the study area towards the end of 21st century.

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Saudi-KAU Coupled Global Climate Model: Description and Performance

Abstract: Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)-like disturbances with features similar to observations, although slightly weaker. Conclusions The Saudi-KAU CGCM ability to simulate the ENSO and the MJO suggests that it is capable of making useful predictions on subseasonal to seasonal timescales.

Cited by 33 publications

References 89 publications

ENSO relationship to summer rainfall variability and its potential predictability over Arabian Peninsula region

ENSO relationship to summer rainfall variability and its potential predictability over Arabian Peninsula region

Multidecadal Changes in the Relationship of Storm Frequency over Euro-Mediterranean Region and ENSO During Boreal Winter

Climate Change Impact on Monthly Precipitation Wet and Dry Spells in Arid Regions: Case Study over Wadi Al-Lith Basin

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