ENSO relationship to summer rainfall variability and its potential predictability over Arabian Peninsula region

Abid, Muhammad Adnan; Almazroui, Mansour; Kucharski, Fred; O’Brien, Enda; Yousef, Ahmed

doi:10.1038/s41612-017-0003-7

Cited by 42 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…The ENSO atmospheric teleconnections is considered as the leading mode of variability that causes profound effect on global and regional climate and weather events (Azharuddin & Dogar, ; Dogar et al, ; Kumar et al, ; Neelin et al, ; Timmermann et al, ; Trenberth et al, ; Trenberth & Caron, ). It has been shown that the climate of Middle East, in particular the AP region, is strongly impacted by ENSO (Abid et al, ; Athar & Ammar, ; Barlow et al, ; Dogar, Kucharski, et al, ; Dogar, Stenchikov, et al, ; Sandeep & Ajayamohan, ). In this section we emphasized that both the El Niño and La Niña are important modes of variability that should be taken into account while discussing leading climate forcing factors and their climatic impacts in the MENA region.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using comprehensive statistical approaches, Zhang et al () examined in detail the trends in temperature and precipitation indices for Middle East region. Some recent studies have analyzed the response of AP region to ENSO or NAO forcings (see, e.g., Abid et al, ; AlSarmi & Washington, , ; Kumar et al, ; Sandeep & Ajayamohan, ). Nevertheless, the impact of the leading climate factors on the MENA region is marginally explored, and therefore, further studies to improve our understanding are warranted.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region

Dogar¹,

Sato

2018

JGR Atmospheres

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The Middle East and North Africa (MENA), primarily the Arabian Peninsula (AP), is a region where the rate of mean surface temperature rise per decade is among the highest globally known during the recent past. Moreover, MENA regional climate is very sensitive to internal and external climate drivers. Therefore, it is of significant practical importance to analyze MENA sensitivity to climate trends as well as leading variability modes such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Using multiple regression technique on observations and the high-resolution atmospheric model output, this study investigates the role of climate trends and leading circulation modes such as NAO, ENSO, and ISM in inducing temperature and precipitation variability in MENA region for the period 1979-2008. Our results show substantial regional temperature and precipitation responses of ENSO, NAO, and ISM over MENA. Both the model and the observations indicate that positive phase of NAO and ENSO significantly cools central parts of MENA, in particular, the AP in winter. However, in boreal summer, the warm ENSO phase produces significant warming and drying over the tropical region. The strengthening (weakening) of ISM suggests cooling (warming) and wetting (drying) over MENA rain-belt region. Moreover, ISM induces a dipole precipitation structure over the tropics caused by Intertropical Convergence Zone shift and associated cloud distribution. High-resolution atmospheric model slightly underestimates NAO and ENSO winter cooling over the AP; however, overall patterns are well reproduced. The conducted analysis sheds light on the internal mechanisms of MENA climate variability.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region

Dogar¹,

Sato

2018

JGR Atmospheres

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“…Over the years, linkages between climatic patterns and precipitation have been investigated by a range of statistical methods, such as correlation (Abid et al, 2018), principal component analysis (Luterbacher et al, 2006), empirical orthogonal functions (Hannachi et al, 2007), and regression and canonical analysis (Xoplaki et al, 2004). However, all these methods are limited in capturing the scale-specific feedbacks and interactions between the long-range climatic patterns and precipitation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unravelling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via a non-linear multi-scale approach

Kurths

Agarwal

Shukla

et al. 2019

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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Abstract. A better understanding of precipitation dynamics in the Indian subcontinent is required since India's society depends heavily on reliable monsoon forecasts. We introduce a non-linear, multiscale approach, based on wavelets and event synchronization, for unravelling teleconnection influences on precipitation. We consider those climate patterns with the highest relevance for Indian precipitation. Our results suggest significant influences which are not well captured by only the wavelet coherence analysis, the state-of-the-art method in understanding linkages at multiple timescales. We find substantial variation across India and across timescales. In particular, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mainly influence precipitation in the south-east at interannual and decadal scales, respectively, whereas the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a strong connection to precipitation, particularly in the northern regions. The effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) stretches across the whole country, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) influences precipitation particularly in the central arid and semi-arid regions. The proposed method provides a powerful approach for capturing the dynamics of precipitation and, hence, helps improve precipitation forecasting.

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“…Moreover, studies have also indicated that ENSO impacts are very important, especially in the monsoon regions (Ashok et al, , ; Azharuddin & Dogar, ; Dogar et al, ; Dogar et al, ; Shukla, ). By employing global climate model simulations (Almazroui et al, ) and observational/reanalysis products, it has been examined that ENSO teleconnection produces strong impact over the Arabian Peninsula summer rainfall (Abid et al, ). The ENSO strongly impacts the Hadley cell (HC), especially the upward branch of HC that is strongly coupled to the monsoon system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Climate Response of Middle Eastern, African, and South Asian Monsoon Regions to Explosive Volcanism and ENSO Forcing

Dogar

Sato

2019

JGR Atmospheres

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It is well observed that the monsoon climate experiences substantial climatic changes following explosive volcanism. Likewise, previous studies show that the monsoon climate regimes, especially, the African and South Asian tropical regions, are adversely affected by El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Hence, studying the sensitivity of the monsoon regions to the effect of these forcing factors, that is, explosive volcanism and volcanic‐induced ENSO forcing, is essential for better understanding the driving mechanism and climate variability in these regions. Using observations and a high resolution atmospheric model, effectively at 50‐ and 25‐km grid spacing, this study shows that ENSO and tropical eruptions together weaken the upward branch of Northern Hemisphere (NH) Hadley cell, that is, Intertropical Convergence Zone. This results in a significant decrease of monsoonal precipitation, suggesting severe drought conditions over the NH tropical rain belt regions. The volcanic‐induced direct radiative cooling and associated land‐sea thermal contrast result in significant warming and drying due to the reduction of clouds over the monsoon regions in boreal summer. The posteruption ENSO circulation also results in warming and drying over NH tropical rain belt regions. This study confirms that the monsoon climate regime responds vigorously to posteruption direct radiative and indirect circulation impacts caused by volcanic‐induced ENSO forcing. Hence, quantification of magnitude and spatial pattern of these postvolcanic direct and indirect climatic responses is important for better understanding of climate variability and changes in Asian and African monsoon regions.

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ENSO relationship to summer rainfall variability and its potential predictability over Arabian Peninsula region

Cited by 42 publications

References 47 publications

Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region

Analysis of Climate Trends and Leading Modes of Climate Variability for MENA Region

Unravelling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via a non-linear multi-scale approach

Regional Climate Response of Middle Eastern, African, and South Asian Monsoon Regions to Explosive Volcanism and ENSO Forcing

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