SARS-CoV-2 was already spreading in France in late December 2019

Deslandes, Antoine; Berti, Valentina; Tandjaoui-Lambotte, Y.; Alloui, Chakib; Carbonnelle, Étienne; Zahar, Jean‐Ralph; Brichler, Ségolène; Cohen, Yves

doi:10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.106006

Cited by 226 publications

(234 citation statements)

References 12 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

212

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Therefore, assuming that the reported association between the two rates was not spurious, the most likely explanation of the present results was that SARS-CoV-2 circulation also was partly uncontrolled. Actually, surveys and phylogenetic analyses support the idea of multiple introductions of the virus in Europe since 2019 [10][11][12][13][14][15]. Such an undetected virus circulation is not surprising, since patients with COVID-19/CLI have been frequently misclassified as patients with ILI [23,24], and is corroborated by SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence surveys [17 -19, 33].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Ecologic association between influenza and COVID-19 mortality rates in European countries

Petti¹,

Cowling

2020

Epidemiol. Infect.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Ecologic studies investigating COVID-19 mortality determinants, used to make predictions and design public health control measures, generally focused on population-based variable counterparts of individual-based risk factors. Influenza is not causally associated with COVID-19, but shares population-based determinants, such as similar incidence/mortality trends, transmission patterns, efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions, comorbidities and underdiagnosis. We investigated the ecologic association between influenza mortality rates and COVID-19 mortality rates in the European context. We considered the 3-year average influenza (2014–2016) and COVID-19 (31 May 2020) crude mortality rates in 34 countries using EUROSTAT and ECDC databases and performed correlation and regression analyses. The two variables – log transformed, showed significant Spearman's correlation ρ = 0.439 (P = 0.01), and regression coefficients, b = 0.743 (95% confidence interval, 0.272–1.214; R2 = 0.244; P = 0.003), b = 0.472 (95% confidence interval, 0.067–0.878; R2 = 0.549; P = 0.02), unadjusted and adjusted for confounders (population size and cardiovascular disease mortality), respectively. Common significant determinants of both COVID-19 and influenza mortality rates were life expectancy, influenza vaccination in the elderly (direct associations), number of hospital beds per population unit and crude cardiovascular disease mortality rate (inverse associations). This analysis suggests that influenza mortality rates were independently associated with COVID-19 mortality rates in Europe, with implications for public health preparedness, and implies preliminary undetected SARS-CoV-2 spread in Europe.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Ecologic association between influenza and COVID-19 mortality rates in European countries

Petti¹,

Cowling

2020

Epidemiol. Infect.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Considering the COVID-19 epidemic may be already spreading globally since December, 2019, 25 Model structure…”

Section: Trajectory Predictions and Scenario Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

SARS-Cov-2 trajectory predictions and scenario simulations from a global perspective: a modelling study

Yang

Liu

Deng

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerging from Wuhan, China has developed into a global epidemic. Here, we combine both human mobility and non-pharmaceutical interventions (social-distancing and suspected-cases isolation) into SEIR transmission model to understand how coronavirus transmits in a global environment. Dynamic trends of region-specific time-variant reproduction number, social-distancing rate, work-resumption rate, and suspected-cases isolation rate have been estimated and plotted for each region by fitting random walk transmission processes to the real total confirmed cases of each region. We find after shutdown in Wuhan, the reproduction number in Wuhan greatly declined from 6·982 (95% CI, 2·558-14·668) on January 23, 2020 to 1·130 (95% CI, 0·289-3·279) on February 7, 2020, and there was a higher intervention level in terms of social distancing and suspected-case isolation in Wuhan than the Chinese average and Western average, for the period from the shutdown in Wuhan to mid-March. Future epidemic trajectories of Western countries up to October 10, 2020, have been predicted with 95% confidence intervals. Through the scenario simulation, we discover the benefits of earlier international travel ban and rigorous intervention strategies, and the significance of non-pharmaceutical interventions. From a global perspective, it is vital for each country to control the risks of imported cases, and execute rigorous non-pharmaceutical interventions before successful vaccination development.

show abstract

“…Inzwischen häufen sich auch Hinweise, dass eine Übertragung dieser neuen SARS-Spezies auf den Menschen bereits spätestens im Oktober 2019 stattgefunden hat [26].…”

Section: Die Zur Identifizierung Dieses Erregers Durchgeführtenunclassified

Labordiagnostik bei SARS-CoV-2-Infektionen

Roskos

2020

Der Klinikarzt

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ZUSAMMENFASSUNGDie aktuelle COVID-19-Pandemie stellte auch die medizinischen Labore vor große Herausforderungen. Der prinzipiell sehr frühen Kenntnis des primär neuen Erregers und der prinzipiellen Möglichkeit des Nachweises des Virus stand oft eine zunächst unzureichende Verfügbarkeit an Reagenzien und Analysensystemen gegenüber, die aber relativ schnell verbessert werden konnten, sodass nun eine flächendeckende und schnelle Diagnostik dieses Erregers möglich ist. Neben der Erregeridentifizierung liefert die Labordiagnostik jedoch auch wichtige Hinweise bei der Beurteilung der Erkrankung bzw. der Abschätzung des weiteren Verlaufes. Die Wertigkeit einzelner Parameter bzw. Parameterkonstellationen wurde dabei teilweise erst im Verlauf der Pandemie deutlich bzw. ist auch noch in der Evaluierung.

show abstract

SARS-CoV-2 was already spreading in France in late December 2019

Cited by 226 publications

References 12 publications

Ecologic association between influenza and COVID-19 mortality rates in European countries

Ecologic association between influenza and COVID-19 mortality rates in European countries

SARS-Cov-2 trajectory predictions and scenario simulations from a global perspective: a modelling study

Labordiagnostik bei SARS-CoV-2-Infektionen

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About