Sample size and classification error for Bayesian change-point models with unlabelled sub-groups and incomplete follow-up

White, Simon R.; Muniz‐Terrera, Graciela; Matthews, Fiona E.

doi:10.1177/0962280216662298

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…Simulation studies have proposed a metric of n = 500 per breakpoint across a range of error precision scenarios, and a metric of n = 1,000 per sample across a range of breakpoint locations and slope coefficients ( White et al, 2018 ). This offers a probability that the true parameter is included in over 90% of samples ( Muggeo, 2003 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

When I’m 64: Age-Related Variability in Over 40,000 Online Cognitive Test Takers

LaPlume

Anderson

McKetton

et al. 2021

The Journals of Gerontology: Series B

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Objectives Age-related differences in cognition are typically assessed by comparing groups of older to younger participants, but little is known about the continuous trajectory of cognitive changes across age, or when a shift to older adulthood occurs. We examined the pattern of mean age differences and variability on episodic memory and executive function measures over the adult lifespan, in a more fine-grained way than past group or lifespan comparisons. Methods We used a sample of over 40,000 people aged 18-90 who completed psychometrically validated online tests measuring episodic memory and executive functions (the Cogniciti Brain Health Assessment). Results Cognitive performance declined gradually over adulthood, and rapidly later in life on spatial working memory, processing speed, facilitation (but not interference), associative recognition, and set shifting. Both polynomial and segmented regression fit the data well, indicating a non-linear pattern. Segmented regression revealed a shift from gradual to rapid decline occurred in the early sixties. Variability between people (interindividual variability or diversity) and variability within a person across tasks (intraindividual variability or dispersion) also increased gradually until the sixties, and rapidly after. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed a single general factor (of variance shared between tasks) offered a good fit for performance across tasks. Discussion Lifespan cognitive performance shows a non-linear pattern, with gradual decline over early and mid-adulthood, followed by a transition in the sixties to notably accelerated, but more variable, decline. Some people show less decline than others, and some cognitive abilities show less within-person decline than others.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

When I’m 64: Age-Related Variability in Over 40,000 Online Cognitive Test Takers

LaPlume

Anderson

McKetton

et al. 2021

The Journals of Gerontology: Series B

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Alternatively, MSE-teams may need to offer, as Open Access, their PAC application so that others can obtain the same data access as the original MSE-team was afforded. However, unless the originally-accessed linked-data are stored, application of the same matching criteria to updated source-files will not retrieve the original data-sets, see White et al (2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiple Systems Estimation (or Capture-Recapture Estimation) to Inform Public Policy

Bird

King

2018

Annu. Rev. Stat. Appl.

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Estimating population sizes has long been of interest, from the estimation of the human or ecological population size within regions or countries to the hidden number of civilian casualties in a war. Total enumeration of the population, for example, via a census, is often infeasible or simply impractical. However, a series of partial enumerations or observations of the population is often possible. This has led to the ideas of capture-recapture methods, which have been extensively used within ecology to estimate the size of wildlife populations, with an associated measure of uncertainty, and are most effectively applied when there are multiple capture occasions. Capture-recapture ideology can be more widely applied to multiple data-sources, by the linkage of individuals across the multiple lists. This is often referred to as Multiple Systems Estimation (MSE). The MSE approach has been preferred when estimating "capture-shy" or hard-to-reach populations, including those caught up in the criminal justice system; or homeless; or trafficked; or civilian casualties of war. Motivated by a range of public policy applications of MSE, each briefly introduced, we discuss practical problems with potentially substantial methodological implications. They include: "period" definition; "case" definition; when an observed count is not a true count of the population of interest but an upper bound due to mismatched definitions; exact or probabilistic matching of "cases" across different lists; demographic or other information about the "case" which may influence capture-propensities; required permissions to access extant-lists; list-creation by research-teams or interested parties; referrals (if presence on list A results - almost surely - in presence on list B); different mathematical models leading to widely different estimated population sizes; uncertainty in estimation; computational efficiency; external validation; hypothesis-generation; and additional independent external information. Returning to our motivational applications, we focus on whether the uncertainty which qualified their estimates was sufficiently narrow to orient public policy; and, if not, what options were available and/or taken to reduce the uncertainty or to seek external validation. We also consider whether MSE was hypothesis-generating: in the sense of having spawned new lines of inquiry.

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“…A number of past studies focused on changepoint detection in the hazard function for reliability and survival analysis, in which the observations were subject to left truncation or (and) right censoring due to dropout or competing risks, see, for example, Lim et al (2002), among others. In a Bayesian framework, White et al (2018) discussed a fixed effect change‐point model with an underlying shape comprised of two joined linear segments called broken‐stick models in a cognitive decline study, in which individuals with incomplete follow‐ups caused missingness. Londschien et al (2021) discussed changepoint detection for high‐dimensional Gaussian graphical models with missing observations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian multiple changepoint detection with missing data and its application to the magnitude‐frequency distributions

Shaochuan

2022

Environmetrics

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The detection of abrupt changes in an evolving pattern of time series in the presence of missing data still poses a challenge to real applications. We formulate the multiple changepoint problem into a latent Markov model on a countably infinite state space. For efficiency-enhancing, we propose a partially collapsed Gibbs sampler for the inference of the joint posterior of the number of changepoints and their locations. Variants of Viterbi algorithms are suggested for obtaining the MAP estimates of random changepoints in the presence of missing data, which provides better performances in these varying-dimensional problems. The method is generally applicable for multiple changepoint detection under a variety of missing data mechanism. The method is applied to a case study of the magnitude-frequency distribution of the 2010 Darfield M7.1 earthquake sequence in New Zealand. We find out some unusual features of the seismic b-value in the Darfield earthquake sequence. It is noted that two changepoints are detected and in contrast to the background seismic b-value, relatively low b-values in the early aftershock propagation period are identified. We suggest that this might be a forewarning of potentially devastatingly strong aftershocks.The advance in the method of b-value changepoint detection will enhance our understanding of earthquake occurrence and potentially lead to improved risk forecasting.

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Sample size and classification error for Bayesian change-point models with unlabelled sub-groups and incomplete follow-up

Cited by 4 publications

References 58 publications

When I’m 64: Age-Related Variability in Over 40,000 Online Cognitive Test Takers

When I’m 64: Age-Related Variability in Over 40,000 Online Cognitive Test Takers

Multiple Systems Estimation (or Capture-Recapture Estimation) to Inform Public Policy

Bayesian multiple changepoint detection with missing data and its application to the magnitude‐frequency distributions

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