Safety evaluation of urban underground utility tunnel with the grey clustering method based on the whole life cycle theory

Safety issues are a major concern for the long-term maintenance and operation of utility tunnels, of which the focal point lies in the reliability of critical facilities. Conventional evaluation methods have failed to reflect the time-dependency and objectivity of the reliability of critical facilities, hence reducing the credibility of the analysis results and posing serious risks to the safety of utility tunnels. Taking joint waterproof facilities as an example, this paper focuses on the scientific problem of how to achieve a dynamic estimation of the reliability of critical facilities throughout the project life cycle of utility tunnels. To this end, an improved Weibull distribution model is proposed to incorporate the actual field conditions that affect the reliability of joint waterproof facilities of utility tunnels. Bayesian methods and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods are used to realize the posterior estimation of the model parameters via the observed failure data. The case study shows that the posterior prediction results fit well with the actual observation data. The proposed model can be used to estimate in real time such key reliability indicators as failure rate, failure warning time and expected failure time, which facilitate the safe operation and targeted maintenance of utility tunnels.

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Fire Risk Assessment of Urban Utility Tunnels Based on Improved Cloud Model and Evidence Theory

Niu

Yuan

Wang

et al. 2023

Applied Sciences

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In order to accurately assess the fire risk of urban utility tunnels, an evaluation method based on the improved cloud model and evidence theory is proposed. Firstly, an evaluation index system for the fire risk of urban utility tunnels is constructed from five aspects: fire prevention, fire control, emergency evacuation, personnel prevention and control, and safety management. Secondly, because of the randomness and fuzziness of fire risk assessment, the improved cloud model with cloud entropy optimization is used to calculate the index membership degree. The uncertainty focal elements are introduced to satisfy the basic probability assignment in evidence theory. Then, the improved evidence theory with dynamic and static weights is applied to fuse the information of the evidence and determine the final evaluation results. It avoids the possible paradoxes of the combination of strong conflict evidence in traditional evidence theory and improves the credibility of the evaluation results. Finally, the feasibility and superiority of the proposed method are verified by an example analysis, which provides a new idea for the fire risk assessment of urban utility tunnels.

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Safety evaluation of urban underground utility tunnel with the grey clustering method based on the whole life cycle theory

Cited by 3 publications

References 15 publications

Building a knowledge graph for operational hazard management of utility tunnels

Building a knowledge graph for operational hazard management of utility tunnels

Reliability Estimation for the Joint Waterproof Facilities of Utility Tunnels Based on an Improved Bayesian Weibull Model

Fire Risk Assessment of Urban Utility Tunnels Based on Improved Cloud Model and Evidence Theory

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