Fire Risk Assessment of Urban Utility Tunnels Based on Improved Cloud Model and Evidence Theory

A scientifically accurate assessment of tunnel health is the prerequisite for the safe maintenance and sustainability of the in-service road tunnel. The changing trend of tunnel health is not considered in existing research. Most evaluation indicators are static and the ambiguities or randomness at the boundary of the health level intervals is neglected in most evaluation methods. In this paper, the evaluation index system combined with dynamic, and static is set to solve these problems. The changing trend of the health state of tunnels is analyzed through the cubic b-spline function. The weights of evaluation indicators are calculated based on the AHP-improved entropy method. The health evaluation method is proposed based on combing the extension theory and the cloud model improved by the cloud entropy optimization algorithm. Finally, the evaluation results of the proposed method are compared with the detection data of the Beilongmen Tunnel of Zhangzhuo Expressway. The results demonstrate that 80% of the evaluation results in the sample tunnel data are consistent with the standard results, and the remaining 20% show a lower level of health than the standard results. This reflects the evaluation results are impacted by the trend of tunnel health status changes. The health state can be more accurately evaluated by dynamic indicators. The improved extension cloud model is feasible and applicable in the health assessment of tunnels. This work provides innovative ideas for the evaluation of the health state of tunnels and theoretical support for the formulation of reasonable maintenance measures.

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Health State Assessment of Road Tunnel Based on Improved Extension Cloud Model

Cui

Chen

Zhu

et al. 2023

Applied Sciences

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Disaster Risk Regionalization and Prediction of Corn Thrips Combined with Cloud Model: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China

Zuo

Jin

et al. 2023

Land

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Corn thrips do serious harm to the yield and quality of corn. In this paper, the Shandong Province of China was taken as the study area. Based on the data of the occurrence of corn thrips in Shandong Province, a risk regionalization model was established by using eight indicators under four categories of hazard, sensitivity, vulnerability and the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity of diseases and pests on a monthly time scale. Firstly, the cloud model was introduced to determine the weight of each indicator, and then the risk regionalization of the corn thrips disaster in Shandong Province was carried out using the weighted percentage method, the weighted comprehensive evaluation method and the natural disaster risk index method. Finally, combined with the collected data, the disaster prediction of corn thrip occurrence degree was realized based on multiple linear regression, genetic algorithm optimized back-propagation neural network and genetic algorithm optimized support vector machine methods. The results show that: (1) the risk of Corn thrips disaster is mainly concentrated in the central and western parts of Shandong Province. Heze City is a high-risk area. Liaocheng City, Dezhou City, Jinan City and Weifang City are relatively high-risk areas. (2) By comparing the prediction accuracy of the three models, it was determined that the genetic algorithm optimized support vector machine model has the best effect, with an average accuracy of 79.984%, which is 7.013% and 22.745% higher than that of the multiple linear regression and genetic algorithm optimized back-propagation neural network methods, respectively. The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for fine prevention of corn thrips in Shandong Province.

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Flood Risk Assessment Based on a Cloud Model in Sichuan Province, China

Liu,

Wang,

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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Floods are serious threats to the safety of people’s lives and property. This paper systematically introduces the basic theories and methods of flood risk assessment, takes Sichuan Province as the study area, and establishes a flood risk assessment index system with 14 indicators in four aspects—disaster-causing factors, disaster-forming environment, disaster-bearing body, and regional disaster resilience capacity—from the causes of disaster losses and flood formation mechanisms. Furthermore, this paper constructs a flood disaster risk assessment model for Sichuan Province based on a cloud model, entropy value, and GIS technology. The model is validated by taking the July–August 2023 flood disaster as an example, and the results show that the distribution of the disaster was consistent with the flood risk assessment results of this paper, which verifies that the selected indicators are appropriate and the model is accurate and valid.

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Fire Risk Assessment of Urban Utility Tunnels Based on Improved Cloud Model and Evidence Theory

Cited by 3 publications

References 31 publications

Health State Assessment of Road Tunnel Based on Improved Extension Cloud Model

Health State Assessment of Road Tunnel Based on Improved Extension Cloud Model

Disaster Risk Regionalization and Prediction of Corn Thrips Combined with Cloud Model: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China

Flood Risk Assessment Based on a Cloud Model in Sichuan Province, China

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