“…14 The logic of deterrence theory dictates that if enemies do not perceive commitments to retaliate with nuclear weapons as credible, they will be tempted to exploit this credibility gap and engage in aggression with impunity. Given the ongoing modernisation of the Russian nuclear arsenal, the continued reliance on nuclear weapons for Russia's international prestige and security (Fink and Oliker 2020), and the US and NATO's concerns about an alleged Russian nuclear "escalate-to-deescalate" doctrine (Ven Bruusgaard 2016, 2020, Department of Defense 2018, Kroenig 2018, Oliker and Baklitskiy 2018, Smetana 2018, the credibility of allied commitments arguably continues to be highly relevant also in today's strategic environment.…”