Role of the North Pacific sea surface temperature in the East Asian winter monsoon decadal variability

Sun, Jun; Wu, Sha Sha; Ao, Juan

doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2805-9

Cited by 50 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…The correlation coefficients are 0.46 (detrended: 0.42) and 0.51 (detrended: 0.53) based on the ERA-20C and 20CR datasets for the period 1900-2009, respectively, and they are significant at α = 0.01. The results here are generally consistent with the physical mechanism simulated by Sun et al (2016), which demonstrates the role of the northwestern Pacific SST in the EAWM. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient between normalized persistent haze days and°°°°°F igure 5.…”

Section: Connections Between the Meridional Wind Anomalysupporting

confidence: 86%

Increasing persistent haze in Beijing: potential impacts of weakening East Asian winter monsoons associated with northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature trends

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Over the past decades, Beijing, the capital city of China, has encountered increasingly frequent persistent haze events (PHE). While the increased pollutant emissions are considered as the most important reason, changes in regional atmospheric circulations associated with large-scale climate warming also play a role. In this study, we find a significant positive trend of PHE in Beijing for the winters from 1980 to 2016 based on updated daily observations. This trend is closely related to an increasing frequency of extreme anomalous southerly episodes in North China, a weakened East Asian trough in the mid-troposphere and a northward shift of the East Asian jet stream in the upper troposphere. These conditions together depict a weakened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) system, which is then found to be associated with an anomalous warm, high-pressure system in the middle-lower troposphere over the northwestern Pacific. A practical EAWM index is defined as the seasonal meridional wind anomaly at 850 hPa in winter over North China. Over the period 1900-2016, this EAWM index is positively correlated with the sea surface temperature anomalies over the northwestern Pacific, which indicates a wavy positive trend, with an enhanced positive phase since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest an observation-based mechanism linking the increase in PHE in Beijing with large-scale climatic warming through changes in the typical regional atmospheric circulation.

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Section: Connections Between the Meridional Wind Anomalysupporting

confidence: 86%

Increasing persistent haze in Beijing: potential impacts of weakening East Asian winter monsoons associated with northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature trends

et al. 2018

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“…Physically, our results indicate that cooler KSST intensifies the East Asian grand trough, in agreement with Sun et al . () and Zhang et al . ().…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…Physically, although the Kuroshio region is located to the east of the East China region downstream, KSST can influence ECT through impacts on large‐scale circulation, especially the East Asia grand trough, and these impacts could be attributed to the thermal wind theory, in agreement with the results in Sun et al . (). Figure displays the distribution of the latitudinal–vertical distribution of the meridional temperature gradient regression averaged along 120–150°E.…”

Section: Observational Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Two dominant factors governing the decadal cooling anomalies in winter in East China during the global hiatus period

Lei

Luo

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Observational analyses reveal substantial cooling anomalies in East China, during the global hiatus period (1998–2013), particularly in winter. The factors contributing to the winter cooling anomalies and the underlying mechanisms are studied. The results highlight the substantial roles played by two factors: Arctic sea ice reduction (i.e., sea ice area in Barents‐Kara Seas, SIA) and the sea surface temperature (SST) cooling anomalies in the Kuroshio extension region (KSST). Together, these factors contribute to approximate 90% of the trend anomaly of East China's area averaged surface air temperature (ECT). The individual contributions from SIA and KSST are investigated based on observational diagnostic analyses and sensitivity experiments. The results show that the contributions from the two factors are similar. Both SIA and KSST induce intensified geopotential height over the mid‐to‐high latitudes of the Eurasian continent, with the maximum over the Ural Mountains extending toward Lake Baikal. These anomalies intensify the Ural blocking activities and Mongolian cold high. Meanwhile, both forcings cause negative 500‐hPa geopotential height (Z500) anomalies over the central North Pacific that extends westward to East Asia, intensifying the climatological East Asian grand trough. However, KSST causes positive Z500 anomalies over the Bering Sea, but SIA does not. The enhanced Ural blocking activities and the deepened East Asian grand trough jointly favour the intensification of the East Asian winter monsoon, thus causing cooling anomalies in East China.

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“…In addition to the wind trends from the reanalysis in our study, McVicar et al [] reviewed the wind speed trend during recent decades and showed a decreasing trend over eastern China in all of the studies they reviewed, which confirms our results. The reduced wind speed is driven by the interplay of many factors, including the weakening of the East Asian monsoon resulting from global warming [ Hu et al , ; Xu et al , ; Jiang et al , ; Guo et al , ], a shift in the dominant mode of the Arctic Oscillation [ He and Wang , ], the variability in North Pacific sea surface temperature [ Sun et al , ], the interdecadal variations of quasi‐stationary planetary waves [ L. Wang et al , ], and urbanization [ Li et al , ]. Figures e and f show the DJF mean surface wind speed trend over 1985–2005 and 1980–2014 from the GSOD database.…”

Section: Relative Importance Of Each Meteorological Parametermentioning

confidence: 99%

Increase in winter haze over eastern China in recent decades: Roles of variations in meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions

2016

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The increase in winter haze over eastern China in recent decades due to variations in meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions was quantified using observed atmospheric visibility from the National Climatic Data Center Global Summary of Day database for 1980–2014 and simulated PM2.5 concentrations for 1985–2005 from the Goddard Earth‐Observing System (GEOS) chemical transport model (GEOS‐Chem). Observed winter haze days averaged over eastern China (105–122.5°E, 20–45°N) increased from 21 days in 1980 to 42 days in 2014 and from 22 to 30 days between 1985 and 2005. The GEOS‐Chem model captured the increasing trend of winter PM2.5 concentrations for 1985–2005, with concentrations averaged over eastern China increasing from 16.1 µg m−3 in 1985 to 38.4 µg m−3 in 2005. Considering variations in both anthropogenic emissions and meteorological parameters, the model simulated an increase in winter surface‐layer PM2.5 concentrations of 10.5 (±6.2) µg m−3 decade−1 over eastern China. The increasing trend was only 1.8 (±1.5) µg m−3 decade−1 when variations in meteorological parameters alone were considered. Among the meteorological parameters, the weakening of winds by −0.09 m s−1 decade−1 over 1985–2005 was found to be the dominant factor leading to the decadal increase in winter aerosol concentrations and haze days over eastern China during recent decades.

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Role of the North Pacific sea surface temperature in the East Asian winter monsoon decadal variability

Cited by 50 publications

References 74 publications

Increasing persistent haze in Beijing: potential impacts of weakening East Asian winter monsoons associated with northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature trends

Increasing persistent haze in Beijing: potential impacts of weakening East Asian winter monsoons associated with northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature trends

Two dominant factors governing the decadal cooling anomalies in winter in East China during the global hiatus period

Increase in winter haze over eastern China in recent decades: Roles of variations in meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions

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