Robustness analysis of underground powerhouse construction simulation based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo method

Zhong, Dexing; Bi, Lei; Yu, Jia; Zhao, Mengqi

doi:10.1007/s11431-015-5859-3

Cited by 9 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Robustness criteria are the foundation for the optimization model. Since activities and logical relationships among activities are two indispensable components of a construction schedule [6], two criteria (i.e., starting time deviation (r s ) and structural deviation (r p )), are proposed to measure the schedule robustness from these two aspects. r s is the robustness criterion proposed from the aspect of activities' starting time, and r p is the robustness criterion proposed from the aspect of logical relationships among activities.…”

Section: Robustness Criteriamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Starting time of activities and logical relationships among them are two indispensable parts, thus the schedule robustness should be measured from these two aspects. But, in the very few multi-objective optimization studies considering both construction duration and schedule robustness, only the starting time deviation is taken as an objective [6]. The neglect of schedule robustness from the perspective of logical relationships among activities-that is, when structural deviation isn't taken as an objective-will cause the construction site to be chaotic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Optimization of Construction Duration and Schedule Robustness Based on Hybrid Grey Wolf Optimizer with Sine Cosine Algorithm

Zhao

Wang

et al. 2020

Energies

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Construction duration and schedule robustness are of great importance to ensure efficient construction. However, the current literature has neglected the importance of schedule robustness. Relatively little attention has been paid to schedule robustness via deviation of an activity’s starting time, which does not consider schedule robustness via structural deviation caused by the logical relationships among activities. This leads to a possibility of deviation between the planned schedule and the actual situation. Thus, an optimization model of construction duration and schedule robustness is proposed to solve this problem. Firstly, duration and two robustness criteria including starting time deviation and structural deviation were selected as the optimization objectives. Secondly, critical chain method and starting time criticality (STC) method were adopted to allocate buffers to the schedule in order to generate alternative schedules for optimization. Thirdly, hybrid grey wolf optimizer with sine cosine algorithm (HGWOSCA) was proposed to solve the optimization model. The movement directions and speed of grey wolf optimizer (GWO) was improved by sine cosine algorithm (SCA) so that the algorithm’s performance of convergence, diversity, accuracy, and distribution improved. Finally, an underground power station in China was used for a case study, by which the applicability and advantages of the proposed model were proved.

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Section: Robustness Criteriamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimization of Construction Duration and Schedule Robustness Based on Hybrid Grey Wolf Optimizer with Sine Cosine Algorithm

Zhao

Wang

et al. 2020

Energies

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“…The tool uses MCS with the risk assessment model based on cost-duration influence diagram proposed by Poh and Tah (2006) for construction projects. Zhong et al (2016) present an improved CSRAM that involves underground powerhouse construction simulation based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. This approach considers the interrelationship between the states of parameters through a Markov state transition probability matrix and the set model of a time buffer to absorb the effect of potential disturbances.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Simulation-Based Scheduling Methodology for Construction Projects Considering the Potential Impacts of Delay Risks

Paz

Rozenboim²,

Cuadros³

et al. 2018

CEB

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This paper tackles the problem of scheduling construction projects considering the influence of delay risks. In the actual body of knowledge, several methods have been proposed to handle this problem, starting from the Project Evaluation and Review Technique to advanced simulation models. However, this investigation proposes a novel integration of one methodology with some approaches already existing in the literature related to Monte Carlo Simulation scheduling techniques as seen from the perspective of a practitioner. The research began with a literature review of both schedule risks and Monte Carlo based scheduling models for construction projects. Based on this, the methodology was designed with the constant participation of experts in the construction industry. As result of this, a comprehensive and practical methodology was constructed. Therefore, a new mathematical structure for the simulation model within the methodology was formulated in which a new concept for each risk defined as “potential impact” was used. Moreover, the simulation model is based on the judgment of experts and methods of the known literature such as the explicit model of the occurrence probability of the risks and the activity-risk factor matrix. Then, to validate the tool, the proposed methodology was applied using the information of an already constructed construction project of a public university of Colombia. The obtained results were a confidence-based forecast of the end date of the project and a quantitative importance measure of the modelled risks. These results were compared against the real history of the project since it was found an excellent performance of the proposed methodology. To sum up, the research process described above supports the validity of the proposed methodology.

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“…Pang [9] proposed a start time deviation as the solution robustness criterion and used it as the optimization objective for robust project scheduling. Zhong [10] carried out a construction schedule robustness measure of underground power stations by adopting a solution robustness criterion named 'start time deviation'. Zhang [11] proposed activity delay as the solution robustness criterion to deal with the materials ordering problem.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Construction Schedule Robustness Measure Based on Improved Prospect Theory and the Copula-CRITIC Method

Zhao

Wang

et al. 2020

Applied Sciences

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A robustness measure is an effective tool to evaluate the anti-interference capacity of the construction schedule. However, most research focuses on solution robustness or quality robustness, and few consider a composite robustness criterion, neglecting the bounded rationality of subjective weights and inherent importance and nonlinear intercriteria correlations of objective weights. Therefore, a construction schedule robustness measure based on improved prospect theory and the Copula-criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC) method is proposed. Firstly, a composite robustness criterion is established, including start time deviation rs and structural deviation rp for measuring solution robustness from project execution and completion probability rc for measuring quality robustness from the project result. Secondly, bounded rationality is considered, using prospect theory to calculate subjective weights, which is improved by the interval distance formula. Thirdly, the Copula-CRITIC method is proposed to determine objective weights incorporating both inherent importance and nonlinear intercriteria correlations. Finally, an information-entropy-based evidence reasoning method is applied to combine subjective and objective weights together while identifying their validity. An underground power station in China is used for a case study, whose robustness is measured using the proposed methods, single robustness criterion, and composite robustness criterion using traditional weighting methods. The comparison results verify the consistency, representativeness, and advantage of the proposed criterion and methods.

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Robustness analysis of underground powerhouse construction simulation based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo method

Cited by 9 publications

References 26 publications

Optimization of Construction Duration and Schedule Robustness Based on Hybrid Grey Wolf Optimizer with Sine Cosine Algorithm

Optimization of Construction Duration and Schedule Robustness Based on Hybrid Grey Wolf Optimizer with Sine Cosine Algorithm

A Simulation-Based Scheduling Methodology for Construction Projects Considering the Potential Impacts of Delay Risks

A Construction Schedule Robustness Measure Based on Improved Prospect Theory and the Copula-CRITIC Method

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