A Simulation-Based Scheduling Methodology for Construction Projects Considering the Potential Impacts of Delay Risks

Abstract

This paper tackles the problem of scheduling construction projects considering the influence of delay risks. In the actual body of knowledge, several methods have been proposed to handle this problem, starting from the Project Evaluation and Review Technique to advanced simulation models. However, this investigation proposes a novel integration of one methodology with some approaches already existing in the literature related to Monte Carlo Simulation scheduling techniques as seen from the perspective of a practitioner. The research began with a literature review of both schedule risks and Monte Carlo based scheduling models for construction projects. Based on this, the methodology was designed with the constant participation of experts in the construction industry. As result of this, a comprehensive and practical methodology was constructed. Therefore, a new mathematical structure for the simulation model within the methodology was formulated in which a new concept for each risk defined as “potential impact” was used. Moreover, the simulation model is based on the judgment of experts and methods of the known literature such as the explicit model of the occurrence probability of the risks and the activity-risk factor matrix. Then, to validate the tool, the proposed methodology was applied using the information of an already constructed construction project of a public university of Colombia. The obtained results were a confidence-based forecast of the end date of the project and a quantitative importance measure of the modelled risks. These results were compared against the real history of the project since it was found an excellent performance of the proposed methodology. To sum up, the research process described above supports the validity of the proposed methodology.

Modelling Building Renovation Using PERT

“…[23] suggested an improved methodology to estimate the mean project completion time using simulation. PERT analysis was used only for activities in the critical path [24].…”

Schedule Delay Risk Analysis in Construction Projects with a Simulation-Based Expert System

“…Buildings 2020, 10, 134 2 of 19 In addition, Monte Carlo simulation has been introduced to project scheduling under uncertainty, and used in combination with PERT, providing a generalized approach of the latter.…”

“…Zhang et al [17] developed an integrated dynamic default tree (DFT) and discrete-time Bayesian network (DTBN) simulation approach to make predictions about tunnel boring machine performance, and Tao et al [18] introduced a graphical evaluation and review technique model and used simulation to determine the key factors that affect the schedule of a new product development project. Recently, Paz et al [19] proposed a new mathematical formulation for the simulation model in which the "potential impact" of a risk factor was used. Then, the simulation process used to validate the functionality of the model via an already constructed construction university project was proposed.…”