Schedule Delay Risk Analysis in Construction Projects with a Simulation-Based Expert System

Abstract

In this paper, we present a simulation-based approach for effectively estimating delay risks in project schedules and predicting the possibilities of in-time project completion for various deadlines. The main contribution of this study is the development of a novel approach for duration risk quantification, which uses a newly introduced equation for total risk estimation regarding activities’ durations, and quantifying the manager’s experience as expressed through a questionnaire. In addition, the proposed approach integrates these preferences into a simulation-based framework used for estimating the activities’ durations variation and predicting the actual project duration with more accuracy. Furthermore, using different distributions according to each activity characteristic supports decision making from a wide range of experts, from risk-averse to risk-seeking managers. The proposed method was applied to estimate the total project completion time of a complicated hotel renovation project and the possibility for the project to be delivered within an imposed deadline. The promising results in comparison to the classic PERT method proved that this process can better express the uncertainty and provide project risk managers with better predictions when estimating budget and time-critical overruns under lack of knowledge and historical data.

Project Risk in the Context of Construction Schedules—Combined Monte Carlo Simulation and Time at Risk (TaR) Approach: Insights from the Fort Bema Housing Estate Complex

“…These are just a few examples, of which there are many more. A very thorough overview of many construction-related studies based on Monte Carlo simulations can be found in the paper by Koulinas et al [95].…”

An Overarching Review on Delay Analyses in Construction Projects

“…One of the most striking problems concerning the existing delay analysis models identified by the researchers is ignoring the CPM during the computation of delay and designation of it to the responsible parties [92,93]. Additionally, actualized schedules may contradict with the planned schedule [94]; therefore, disregarding the actual site progress cannot give the accurate result for delay analyses [95,96]. Actual progress consideration for the time intervals is also vital to detect the fluctuations on the Critical Path (CP) during the execution of delay analysis [12,92,97].…”

Trading off Time–Cost–Quality in Construction Project Scheduling Problems with Fuzzy SWARA–TOPSIS Approach

“…Project scheduling and the allocation of limited resources to activities is one of the most important topics related to the field of project management. Koulinas et al [13] proposed a simulation-based method for determining risks of schedule delay. In addition, Abdellatif and Alshibani [14] specified the main causes of project delays in Saudi Arabia.…”