Risk perception and volcanic hazard mitigation: Individual and social perspectives

Paton, Douglas; Smith, L. M.; Daly, Michele; Johnston, David

doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.026

Cited by 236 publications

(197 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…In fact, recent research on risk perceptions related to volcano hazards emphasizes the importance of understanding the social, cultural and economic contexts as a factor determining how people respond to risks (Gaillard and Dibben 2008;Degg and Chester 2005; Gavilanes- Decisions and behaviour that may first appear irrational can emerge as rational and explicable, once the social and economic contexts are better explored (Gaillard 2008). Community involvement and trust in institutions have also been identified as important determinants of the level of preparedness (Paton et al 2008), a finding that has recently also been confirmed for the population centres of the Combeima valley (M. Thomas, pers. communication).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A risk analysis for floods and lahars: case study in the Cordillera Central of Colombia

Künzler

Huggel

Ramı́rez³

2012

Nat Hazards

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The glacier-covered Nevado del Tolima in the Colombian Cordillera Central is an active volcano with potential lahars that might be more hazardous than those on Nevado del Ruiz. Furthermore, rainfalltriggered floods and landslides notoriously and severely affect the region. For effective disaster prevention, a risk analysis is of primary importance. We present here a risk analysis methodology that is based on the assessment of lahar and rainfall-related flood hazard scenarios and different aspects of vulnerability. The methodology is applied for populated centres in the Combeima valley and the regional capital Ibagué (*500,000 inhabitants). Lahar scenarios of 0.5, 1, 5, and 15 million m3 volume are based on melting of 1, 2, 10, and 25 % of ice, firn and snow, respectively, due to volcanic activity and subsequent lahar formation. For flood modelling, design floods with a return period of 10 and 100 years were calculated. Vulnerability is assessed considering physical vulnerability, operationalized by market values of dwelling parcels and population density, whereas social vulnerability is expressed by the age structure of the population and poverty. Standardization of hazard and vulnerability allows for the integration into a risk equation, resulting in five-level risk maps, with additional quantitative estimate of damage. The probability of occurrence of lahars is low, but impacts would be disastrous, with about 20,000 people and more directly exposed to it. Floods are much more recurrent, but affected areas are generally smaller. High-risk zones in Ibaguéare found in urban areas close to the main river with high social vulnerability. The methodology has proven to be a suitable tool to provide a first overview of spatial distribution of risk which is considered by local and regional authorities for disaster risk reduction. The harmonization of technical-engineering risk analysis and approaches from social sciences into common reference concepts should be further developed. Abstract The glacier-covered Nevado del Tolima in the Colombian Cordillera Central is an active volcano with potential lahars that might be more hazardous than those on Nevado del Ruiz. Furthermore, rainfall-triggered floods and landslides notoriously and severely affect the region. For effective disaster prevention, a risk analysis is of primary importance. We present here a risk analysis methodology that is based on the assessment of lahar and rainfall-related flood hazard scenarios and different aspects of vulnerability. The methodology is applied for populated centres in the Combeima valley and the regional capital Ibagué (*500,000 inhabitants). Lahar scenarios of 0.5, 1, 5, and 15 million m 3 volume are based on melting of 1, 2, 10, and 25 % of ice, firn and snow, respectively, due to volcanic activity and subsequent lahar formation. For flood modelling, design floods with a return period of 10 and 100 years were calculated. Vulnerability is assessed considering physical vulnerability, operationalized by market values of dwellin...

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A risk analysis for floods and lahars: case study in the Cordillera Central of Colombia

Künzler

Huggel

Ramı́rez³

2012

Nat Hazards

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“…Appropriate risk management actions by stakeholders, emergency managers and the public require an adequate perception of the risk and the correct actions to take in a crisis, with perception dependent on the hazard information received and exposure to impacts (Johnston et al 1999;Leonard et al 2014). Knowledge and understanding of volcanic hazards allows individuals to better decide whether to undertake preparedness and response measures, and if so, which are required, thus reducing their vulnerability to the hazard(s) (Siegrist and Cvetkovich 2000;Paton et al 2008;Bird et al 2010).…”

Section: Communication and Risk Management Strategiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Communication and Risk Management of Volcanic Ballistic Hazards

Fitzgerald

Kennedy

Wilson

et al. 2017

Advances in Volcanology

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Tourists, hikers, mountaineers, locals and volcanologists frequently visit and reside on and around active volcanoes, where ballistic projectiles are a lethal hazard. The projectiles of lava or solid rock, ranging from a few centimetres to several metres in diameter, are erupted with high kinetic, and sometimes thermal, energy. Impacts from projectiles are amongst the most frequent causes of fatal volcanic incidents and the cause of hundreds of thousands of dollars of damage to buildings, infrastructure and property worldwide. Despite this, the assessment of risk and communication of ballistic hazard has received surprisingly little study. Here, we review the research to date on ballistic distributions, impacts, hazard and risk assessments and maps, and methods of communicating and managing ballistic risk including how these change with a changing risk environment. The review suggests future improvements to the communication and management of ballistic hazard.

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“…As mentioned, the literature on the psychology of risk details how the provision of information per se is not inherently associated with its reception and application (Paton et al 2008;Paton and Johnston 2001;McKenzie-Mohr 2000). There is a common assumption that it is a lack of information that leads to a lack of action to prepare for hazards.…”

Section: Lessons Learned In Using Information and Communication Technmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…number of years in the neighbourhood, previous disaster experience, level of participation in community activities). Furthermore, issues such as trust, beliefs, and perceptions about personal and community efficacy influence the ways in which information is consumed and used (Paton et al 2008;Paton 2007;Devine-Wright and Devine-Wright 2004). Anxiety levels also play a major role in disaster preparedness (Joffe et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Digital engagement methods for earthquake and fire preparedness: a review

et al. 2016

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Natural or human-made hazards may occur at any time. Although one might assume that individuals plan in advance for such potentially damaging events, the existing literature indicates that most communities remain inadequately prepared. In the past, research in this area has focused on identifying the most effective ways to communicate risk and elicit preparedness by means of public hazard education campaigns and risk communication programmes. Today, web-and mobile-based technologies are offering new and far-reaching means to inform communities on how to prepare for or cope with extreme events, thus significantly contributing to community preparedness. Nonetheless, their practical efficacy in encouraging proactive hazard preparedness behaviours is not yet proven. Building on behaviour change interventions in the health field and looking in particular at earthquakes and fire hazards, the challenging RISK team has reviewed the currently active websites, Web, and mobile applications that provide information about earthquake and home fire preparedness. The review investigates the type of information provided, the modality of delivery, and the presence of behaviour change techniques in their design. The study proves that most of the digital resources focus on a single hazard and fail to provide context-sensitive information that targets specific groups of users. Furthermore, behaviour change techniques are rarely implemented in the design of these applications and their efficacy is rarely systematically evaluated. Recommendations for improving the design of Web-and mobile-based technologies are made so as to increase their effectiveness and uptake for a multi-hazard approach to earthquake and home fire preparedness.

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Risk perception and volcanic hazard mitigation: Individual and social perspectives

Cited by 236 publications

References 23 publications

A risk analysis for floods and lahars: case study in the Cordillera Central of Colombia

A risk analysis for floods and lahars: case study in the Cordillera Central of Colombia

The Communication and Risk Management of Volcanic Ballistic Hazards

Digital engagement methods for earthquake and fire preparedness: a review

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