Risk-oriented model for predicting epidemiological situation with crimean-congo hemorrhagic fever (on the example of Stavropol region)

Прислегина, Д. А.; Куличенко, А. Н.

doi:10.21668/health.risk/2018.1.02.eng

Health Risk Analysis

2018

DOI: 10.21668/health.risk/2018.1.02.eng

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Risk-oriented model for predicting epidemiological situation with crimean-congo hemorrhagic fever (on the example of Stavropol region)

Д. А. Прислегина¹,

А. Н. Куличенко²

Abstract: Our research object was a multi-factor prediction of risks related to even a single case of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) on a territory of a particular administrative district in a RF subject (on the example of Stavropol region

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Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in the North Caucasian Federal District: overview of the epidemiological situation and improvement of morbidity forecasting method

Прислегина

Малецкая

Platonov

2022

Russian Journal of Infection and Immunity

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This article is dedicated to analyzing epidemiological situation of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in the subjects of the North Caucasian Federal District (from 2005 to 2021) and developing a new approach to improve epidemiological forecasting by using an in-progress «prognostic» model. The study is comprehensive, using epidemiological methods and mathematical statistics. The epidemiological analysis was carried out based on information from the databases on the incidence rate for Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever presented as a project and maps of infectious disease focus epidemiological examination. The «prognostic» morbidity model is developed based on Bayes' theorem and Wald's sequential statistical analysis. The factors information calculation was carried out by using by the Kullback method. The value of climatic factors was retrieved from the database of the Center for Collective Use «IKI-monitoring» of the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The data obtained indicate that the majority of patients with Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever within the studied long-term period in the Stavropol Territory (629) and the Republic of Dagestan (46) were revealed. Isolated cases in the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (2), the Karachay-Cherkess Republic (3) and the Republic of Ingushetia (2) were noted. Infection by the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever causative agent via the transmission mechanism occurred mainly during the care after farm animals in 59.4 per cent. The prevalence of moderate forms of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (79 per cent) was noted, with hemorrhagic manifestations (over the last five years) observed almost in half of the patients. The proportion of correct preliminary diagnoses during patient hospitalization was 49 per cent. While testing the «prognostic» model in 2021 particularly in the Stavropol Territory, a complete exact coincidence for predicted and the actual data was obtained for 11 districts (42.3 per cent). False positive (38.5 per cent) and overestimated (11.5 per cent) data at this stage of the study do not significantly reduce the predictive value of the model (since they often reflect registered infection case that occurred at the patient's place of residence in another administrative region, underdiagnoses mild forms of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in medical institutions or high efficiency of preventive measures against ticks measures carried out before the beginning of the epidemic season in individual municipal districts). «False negative» results were 7.7 per cent. Thus, the results of the analysis evidence about a need to improve the training of medical personnel for the timely detection of patients with Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever and to enhance the effectiveness of preventive measures against ticks. The results of testing the «prognostic» model confirm the feasibility and hold promise to continue the study

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Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in the North Caucasian Federal District: overview of the epidemiological situation and improvement of morbidity forecasting method

Прислегина

Малецкая

Platonov

2022

Russian Journal of Infection and Immunity

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About the characteristics of «internal» and «external» epidemiological risks in the territory Rostov region

Кононенко

Водяницкая

2020

Med. vestn. Ûga Ross.

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Objective: to identify some «internal» and «external» risks that are signifi cant for the Rostov region and calculate their quantitative characteristics.Materials and methods: materials for «internal» risks in the administrative territories of the Rostov region served materials FBUZ «Center of hygiene and epidemiology in the Rostov region» on the incidence of Crimean hemorrhagic fever (KGL) and West Nile (LSN) during the period 2004 – 2017 as a whole across the Rostov region and the slit regions, the data of the regional law «About administrative-territorial structure of Rostov region», the Results of the national census. To determine the «internal» risks, we used the guidelines developed by us «Methodology for assessing the territory of the subject of the Russian Federation on the integral indicator of population morbidity with arbovirus infections», approved by Th e decision of the Academic Council of the Rostov-on-Don anti-plague Institute of Rospotrebnadzor and approved by the Director.Results: based on the results of the ranking of the territory of the Rostov region on the incidence of KGL and LDL, the degree of epidemiological risk was assessed and «risk territories» were identifi ed for these nosologies, which can serve as a basis for risk management — making scientifi cally based management decisions. To calculate the magnitude of the «external» risk and further spread of the disease, you can use various methods to assess the probability of adverse development of the epidemiological situation under the infl uence of various risk factors. Epidemiological risk can also be characterized by multiplying the individual risk by the population exposed to risk factors.Conclusions: identifi cation and calculation of risk levels depending on risk factors will help determine the scope of management decisions, and the specifi cation of risk factors will allow you to develop specifi c measures to reduce risk.

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Current Status of the Natural Foci of Tick-Borne Diseases in the Stavropol Region

Василенко¹,

Прислегина²,

Manin³

et al. 2021

PH&LE

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Background: Tick-borne diseases are a serious threat to the epidemiological safety of the population of the Stavropol Region, making up more than 70 per cent of all natural focal infectious diseases registered in this territory annually. A wide range of hosts contributes to high tick abundance, diversity of tick-borne pathogens, and maintenance of the natural foci. Objective: To assess the activity of natural foci of tick-borne infections in the Stavropol Region in 2016–2020. Materials and methods: We used notifications submitted by the Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology in the Stavropol Region to the Scientific and Methodological Center for Monitoring the Pathogens of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases of Pathogenicity Groups II–IV for the subjects of the North Caucasian and Southern Federal Districts and the results of an epizootological survey of the Stavropol territory by specialists of the Stavropol Plague Control Research Institute. Markers of the causative agents of tick-borne diseases were detected by ELISA and PCR methods. Data processing was carried out using Microsoft Excel 2010. Results: Active natural foci of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, Q fever, a group of tick-borne spotted fevers, Lyme disease, human granulocytic anaplasmosis, and human monocytic ehrlichiosis were established in the region in 2016–2020. Human cases of the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, Lyme borreliosis and Q fever were also registered annually. The abundance of infected ticks in resort towns of the Caucasian Mineral Waters is of particular concern. Conclusion: We established up-to-date epizootic and epidemic manifestations of tick-borne infections in the Stavropol Region in the modern period, which are an important link in epidemiological surveillance and the basis for improving preventive measures

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Risk-oriented model for predicting epidemiological situation with crimean-congo hemorrhagic fever (on the example of Stavropol region)

Abstract: Our research object was a multi-factor prediction of risks related to even a single case of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) on a territory of a particular administrative district in a RF subject (on the example of Stavropol region

Cited by 5 publications

References 5 publications

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in the North Caucasian Federal District: overview of the epidemiological situation and improvement of morbidity forecasting method

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in the North Caucasian Federal District: overview of the epidemiological situation and improvement of morbidity forecasting method

About the characteristics of «internal» and «external» epidemiological risks in the territory Rostov region

Current Status of the Natural Foci of Tick-Borne Diseases in the Stavropol Region

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