Risk of natural disturbances makes future contribution of Canada's forests to the global carbon cycle highly uncertain

Kurz, Werner A.; Stinson, G.; Rampley, Gregory J.; Dymond, Caren C.; Neilson, E. T.

doi:10.1073/pnas.0708133105

Cited by 451 publications

(328 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…An increase in disturbances as found in this study could impose a negative impact on forest C storages and counteract efforts to climate change mitigation in forestry (cf. Kurz et al 2008;Seidl et al 2008).…”

Section: Climate Change Impacts and Effects Of Adaptive Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Vice versa, disturbances have profound impacts on forest resources and are thus essential elements in realistic models of large scale forest development (cf. Schelhaas et al 2002;Kurz et al 2008). Thus, despite the considerable trade-offs necessary to foster applicability at larger scales (e.g., with regard to processes such as detailed population dynamics) an integration of biotic disturbances in large-scale forest models is of high priority.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

et al. 2008

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Section: Climate Change Impacts and Effects Of Adaptive Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

et al. 2008

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“…Models suggest this biome will experience rapid temperature increases during the 21st century, with a potential 30-500% increase in burn rates (6)(7)(8)(9). Both fire size and the frequency of large fire years are expected to increase (8,10,11), with a cascading effect on ecosystem dynamics (12)(13)(14)(15)(16) and carbon storage (17)(18)(19)(20)(21).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Resistance of the boreal forest to high burn rates

Héon

Arseneault

Parisien

2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

139

153

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Boreal ecosystems and their large carbon stocks are strongly shaped by extensive wildfires. Coupling climate projections with records of area burned during the last 3 decades across the North American boreal zone suggests that area burned will increase by 30-500% by the end of the 21st century, with a cascading effect on ecosystem dynamics and on the boreal carbon balance. Fire size and the frequency of large-fire years are both expected to increase. However, how fire size and time since previous fire will influence future burn rates is poorly understood, mostly because of incomplete records of past fire overlaps. Here, we reconstruct the length of overlapping fires along a 190-km-long transect during the last 200 y in one of the most fire-prone boreal regions of North America to document how fire size and time since previous fire will influence future fire recurrence. We provide direct field evidence that extreme burn rates can be sustained by a few occasional droughts triggering immense fires. However, we also show that the most fire-prone areas of the North American boreal forest are resistant to high burn rates because of overabundant young forest stands, thereby creating a fuel-mediated negative feedback on fire activity. These findings will help refine projections of fire effect on boreal ecosystems and their large carbon stocks.climate change | fire-free intervals | fuel feedback | probability of burning | tree ring dating

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“…In western Canada, the boreal forest is suffering from an invasion of mountain pine beetle that is linked to climate warming (Kurz et al 2008a). This has caused widespread tree mortality and has turned the nation's forests from a carbon sink to a carbon source (Kurz et al 2008b). Fire frequencies have also been increasing across the boreal forest zone.…”

Section: Land Surfacesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Arctic Climate Tipping Points

Lenton

2012

AMBIO

147

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There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points.

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Risk of natural disturbances makes future contribution of Canada's forests to the global carbon cycle highly uncertain

Cited by 451 publications

References 53 publications

Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

Resistance of the boreal forest to high burn rates

Arctic Climate Tipping Points

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