Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

Seidl, Rupert; Schelhaas, M.J.; Lindner, Marcus; Lexer, Manfred J.

doi:10.1007/s10113-008-0068-2

Cited by 101 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Reductions in rotation length decrease the time the timber crop is at risk (Schelhaas 2008;Schelhaas et al 2010); limit the top height reached, reducing windthrow risk (Schelhaas 2008); and generally reduce uncertainty, allowing another more suitable species to be replanted. A change in species composition avoids risks associated with specific species, as for example, windthrow and bark beetles in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst; Seidl et al 2009) or drought-intolerant species, but also to spread risk of general by using more species, the so-called insurance hypothesis (Folke et al 1996).…”

Section: Alternative Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Alternative forest management strategies to account for climate change-induced productivity and species suitability changes in Europe

et al. 2015

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We present for the first time a study on alternative forest management at the European scale to account for climate change impacts. We combine insights into detailed studies at high resolution with the actual status of the forest and a realistic estimate of the current management practices at large scale. Results show that the European forest system is very inert and that it takes a long time to influence the species distribution by replacing species after final felling. By 2070, on average about 36 % of the area expected to have decreased species suitability will have changed species following business as usual management. Alternative management, consisting of shorter rotations for those species and species planting based on expected trends, will have increased this species transition to 40 %. The simulated forward-looking alternative management leads to some reduction in increment, but does not influence the amount of wood removed from the forest.Northern Europe is projected to show the highest production increases under climate change and can also adapt faster to the new (proposed) species distribution. Southwest Europe is expected to face the greatest challenge by a combination of a predicted loss of production and a slow rate of management alteration under climate change.

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Section: Alternative Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Alternative forest management strategies to account for climate change-induced productivity and species suitability changes in Europe

et al. 2015

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“…Accounting for disturbance effects in country-scale resource assessments, Kurz et al (1992) and Kurz and Apps (1999) developed a distribution-based approach based on long-term disturbance records (CBM-CFS), recently refined with regard to insect disturbances (Kurz et al, 2009). In another country-scale study, Seidl et al (2009) applied a statistical meta-modelling approach to upscale process-based estimates of bark beetle mortality in the large-scale forest scenario model EFISCEN.…”

Section: Impactmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Potential frameworks for such integration efforts include multi-scale hierarchical approaches assuring consistent and robust scaling (cf. Mäkelä, 2003); modular designs, which allow the incorporation of processes in their respective spatial and temporal domain with interactions facilitated by a common platform (e.g., Scheller et al, 2007); metamodel concepts to consistently scale and integrate process models (e.g., Urban et al, 1999;Seidl et al, 2009); and hybrid approaches integrating multiple concepts towards a balanced representation of a wide variety of ecosystem processes (e.g., Seely et al, 2004).…”

Section: Level Of Organization Concept a Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

Seidl

Fernandes

Fonseca

et al. 2011

Ecological Modelling

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“…Introducing autochthonous species into mono-specific plantations is a successful way to increase diversity, reduce natural damages and attenuate the risk of investments under predicted climatic scenarios (Zerbe 2002;Gärtner and Reif 2004;Knoke et al 2005;Seidl et al 2009). The awareness of developing adaptive forest management strategies is mainstream in Europe and worldwide (Bolte et al 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies to the interactive effect of neighbor identity and enhanced CO2 levels

Rolo

Andivia

Pokorný

2015

Trees

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Enhanced levels of CO 2 affected both the nutrition and morphology of both species. The effect of interspecific competition was dependent on the species identity but not on the CO 2 level. AbstractThe interest in adaptive forest strategies to overcome predicted scenarios of climate change is increasing worldwide. An example of these strategies is the introduction of native species into mono-specific plantations. However, to fully consider this option/strategy, a higher understanding of the responses of forest tree species to concurrent biotic and abiotic factors is needed. The aim of the present study was to assess nutritional and morphological adjustments of individuals of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Norway Spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) growing at enhanced levels of CO 2 and with different proportions of con-specific individuals in its vicinity.Individuals that grew at elevated CO 2 levels showed higher values of relative growth rate (RGR), total twig dry biomass and root biomass, and lower values of leaf area ratio, leaf N and Mg concentrations and soil nutrient concentrations. Individuals of Norway spruce growing in the vicinity of high proportions of European beech showed a reduction in the allocation of biomass to foliar tissue and lower values of RGR and root biomass. European beech, by contrast, showed a limited response to Norway spruce presence and higher capacity in the exploitation of space both above-and belowground. In conclusion, the lower response of European beech to both environmental factors suggests that the introduction of European beech into Norway spruce stands could be a feasible option in current forest transition strategies.

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Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies

Cited by 101 publications

References 43 publications

Alternative forest management strategies to account for climate change-induced productivity and species suitability changes in Europe

Alternative forest management strategies to account for climate change-induced productivity and species suitability changes in Europe

Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

Response of Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies to the interactive effect of neighbor identity and enhanced CO2 levels

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