Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

Seidl, Rupert; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Fonseca, Teresa; Gillet, François; Jönsson, Anna Maria; Merganičová, Katarína; Netherer, Sigrid; Arpaci, Alexander; Bontemps, Jean‐Daniel; Bugmann, Harald; González-Olabarría, José Ramón; Lasch, Petra; Meredieu, Céline; Moreira, Francisco; Schelhaas, M.J.; Mohren, Frits

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.09.040

Cited by 334 publications

(224 citation statements)

References 375 publications

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“…The assumption is that more and better data will make prediction more accurate and/or reliable (Shaw and Osborne 2011). In these efforts, documented impacts of environmental change on plant pathosystems need to be complemented by predictions based on expert knowledge and common sense (Marçais and Desprez-Loustau 2007;Roos et al 2010) as well as on computer simulations (Bergot et al 2004;DesprezLoustau et al 2007b;La Porta et al 2008;Watt et al 2010;Seidl et al 2011).…”

Section: Predictability Modelling and Extrapolationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—opinions and trends

et al. 2012

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There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases. This overview addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies on the impacts of climate change on plant health. Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Californian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronicity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and predicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Prediction and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertainty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to interdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in mountain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (including our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycorrhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods.Keywords Adaptive ecosystem management . Biotic interactions . Landscape pathology . Phytophthora ramorum . Plant disease epidemiology . Tree fungal pathogens Up to the 1990s, there was little information about climate change impacts on plant disease. For example, Eur J Plant Pathol

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Section: Predictability Modelling and Extrapolationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—opinions and trends

et al. 2012

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“…Natural disturbance patches and events, from both abiotic and biotic agents, can serve as case studies to retrospectively test existing individual tree and stand-scale models. Moreover, specific simulators have been developed to model disturbance-related risk and impact in forest ecosystems, and could be useful for both management and ecological research (Hanewinkel et al 2010, Seidl et al 2011. A further example of an underdeveloped research area is represented by forest-wildlife interactions, with specific reference to ungulate browsing on regeneration.…”

Section: Emerging Themes and Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Italian forests: state of the art and future challenges

Vacchiano¹,

Magnani²,

Collalti³

2012

iForest

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This review is a follow-up to the first meeting of the Forest modeling working group (FMWG) of the Italian Society of Silviculture and Forest Ecology (SISEF), held in December 2009. 18 talks were delivered to an audience of 40 researchers. We review the state of the art of forest ecosystem modeling in Italy, highlight findings from Italian research groups, and summarize relevant issues. Developing on the discussion session of the meeting, we indicate current research gaps and future challenges for modelers, forest ecologists and foresters alike, with a special emphasis on model validation, data availability, and communication between researchers and managers.

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“…European landscapes are affected by many disturbances [50,51]. Among them, wildfires have a major impact especially in southern Europe (Mediterranean region) [52].…”

Section: Post-fire Regional Scale Rapid Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-scale Robust Modelling of Landslide Susceptibility: Regional Rapid Assessment and Catchment Robust Fuzzy Ensemble

Bosco

Rigo

Dijkstra

et al. 2013

IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology

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Abstract. Landslide susceptibility assessment is a fundamental component of effective landslide prevention. One of the main challenges in landslides forecasting is the assessment of spatial distribution of landslide susceptibility. Despite the many different approaches, landslide susceptibility assessment still remains a challenge. A semi-quantitative method is proposed combining heuristic, deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a robust catchment scale assessment. A fuzzy ensemble model has been exploited for aggregating an array of different susceptibility zonation maps. Each susceptibility zonation has been obtained by applying heterogeneous statistical techniques as logistic regression (LR), relative distance similarity (RDS), artificial neural network (ANN) and two different landslide susceptibility techniques based on the infinite slope stability model. The sequence of data-transformation models has been enhanced following the semantic array programming paradigm. The ensemble has been applied to a study area in Italy. This catchment scale methodology may be exploited for analysing the potential impact of landscape disturbances. At regional scale, a qualitative approach is also proposed as a rapid assessment technique -suitable for application in real-time operations such as wildfire emergency management.

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Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

Cited by 334 publications

References 375 publications

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—opinions and trends

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—opinions and trends

Modeling Italian forests: state of the art and future challenges

Multi-scale Robust Modelling of Landslide Susceptibility: Regional Rapid Assessment and Catchment Robust Fuzzy Ensemble

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