Risk Modelling with Bayesian Networks - Case Study: Construction of Tunnel under the Dead Vistula River in Gdansk

Kemblowski, M. W.; Grzyl, Beata; Kristowski, Adam; Siemaszko, Agata

doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2017.08.046

Cited by 19 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…The project performance is mainly influenced by managerial effectiveness and sophistication of the client and their representatives in terms of creating and maintaining positive project team relationships between contractor and design teams [8]. Shortage of skilled project managers emerges as the root cause for time and cost overruns in a project lifecycle [5]. cost overrun are fuelled by frequent changes in design and weak procurement planning, which can be mitigated by adequate training and coaching of project managers [5].…”

Section: Cost Overrun In Construction Industrymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Shortage of skilled project managers emerges as the root cause for time and cost overruns in a project lifecycle [5]. cost overrun are fuelled by frequent changes in design and weak procurement planning, which can be mitigated by adequate training and coaching of project managers [5]. As a result cost uncertainty analysis is an important feature of cost estimation that helps decision makers to understand not only the potential funding exposure but also the nature of risks for a particular project or program [10].…”

Section: Cost Overrun In Construction Industrymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Literature Review and Identification of Prominent Cost Overrun Causing Factors in Highway Projects

Sharma¹

2019

IJRASET

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The main motive of Construction companies is to achieve profits at the completion of project. This benefit in terms of money is achieved when the project is completed within the estimated budget, scheduled duration and delivering specific standard quality work. Cost overruns have been a constant source of anxiety for project developers and several studies have been conducted in order to identify major causes responsible for cost overruns. In this paper, literature survey was conducted in order to identify the most critical factors that lead to cost overruns in construction of highway projects. 10 critical factors that lead to cost overrun were identified.

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Section: Cost Overrun In Construction Industrymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Cost Overrun In Construction Industrymentioning

confidence: 99%

Literature Review and Identification of Prominent Cost Overrun Causing Factors in Highway Projects

Sharma¹

2019

IJRASET

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“…The literature review allowed to identify factors that in the opinion of many researchers, have a significant impact on the increase of costs and duration of construction investments. Most of the mentioned studies refer to the scale of implemented investments, not their specificity [16,17,18].…”

Section: The Specificity Of Construction Projects Carried Out In Histmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of historical conditions on time and cost of construction project

Apollo¹,

Grzyl²,

Jakubowicz³

2018

Creative Construction Conference 2018 - Proceedings

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Conducting construction works in a building or in an area entered in the historic register is associated with the contracting authority's risk of incurring higher than planned costs of works, as well as delays in their implementation. In many cases, these deviations are completely independent of contracting authority and contractor. The aim of this article is to indicate the reasons for cost and time changes in the construction project, which is influenced by the historical conditions of the building site's location. In practice, the detailed considerations presented in the article may contribute to increasing the efficiency of spending public funds in the implementation of construction projects of a specific nature. Based on the selected example -reconstruction of the Old Pharmacy building located in the historic part of the old city of Gdańsk, the authors analyze and classify factors affecting the cost and time of construction works taking into account the historical conditions of the location of the facility.

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“…The Bayesian framework was applied in both steps and the improvements in the results were discussed. Another application of BNs was presented in [14] and it demonstrates how Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can be used as a diagnostic-decision support model (D-DSM) during the implementation phase of a large construction project. The example concerns a road tunnel and demonstrates how the D-DSM can combine expert knowledge with the monitoring information.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Idea of Using Bayesian Networks in Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations Transmitted through the Ground on Residential Buildings

2019

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Traffic–induced vibrations may constitute a considerable load to buildings. In this paper, vibrations transmitted through the ground caused by wheeled vehicles are considered. This phenomenon may cause cracking of plaster, cracks in load-bearing elements or even, in extreme cases, collapse of the whole structure. Measurements of vibrations of real structures are costly and laborious. Therefore, the aim of the present paper is to propose a method of using Bayesian networks combined with implementation of geoscience for assessment of impact of traffic–induced vibrations on residential buildings. Firstly, the experimental tests were performed on different buildings using specialized equipment taking into account five factors: Distance from the building to the edge of the road, condition of road surface, condition of the building, the absorption of soil and the type of vehicle. Then, probabilistic analyses applying Bayesian networks were conducted and two methods of assessing the information value (EVSI method and entropy method) were compared. Finally, the developed diagnostic–decision support model was tested, so as to verify the most important parameter, affecting the possibility of structural vibrations to occur. The results of the study clearly showed that the use of Bayesian networks was a very effective approach to assess the impact of traffic-induced vibrations. The developed algorithm could be successfully applied both to existing and planned buildings, for which the source of vibration is already present or may appear in the future.

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Risk Modelling with Bayesian Networks - Case Study: Construction of Tunnel under the Dead Vistula River in Gdansk

Cited by 19 publications

References 4 publications

Literature Review and Identification of Prominent Cost Overrun Causing Factors in Highway Projects

Literature Review and Identification of Prominent Cost Overrun Causing Factors in Highway Projects

The influence of historical conditions on time and cost of construction project

The Idea of Using Bayesian Networks in Forecasting Impact of Traffic-Induced Vibrations Transmitted through the Ground on Residential Buildings

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