Risk management model of winter navigation operations

Abstract

The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish-Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible.

A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters

“…The results obtained in the course of the presented study are compared with the similar studies conducted for 419 the Northern Baltic Sea, see for example (Valdez Banda et al, 2016;Valdez Banda et al, 2015). The results of the 420 probability of occurrence for the undesired events in this paper are between 10 -5 and 10 -3 , and these values are 421 comparable to those characterizing maritime transportation systems operating in ice-covered waters of the Northern 422 Baltic Sea .…”

Untitled

“…In dealing with human factors quantification, Martins & Maturana [11] proposed a Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) approach for the human failure evaluation in the collisions and groundings accident of oil tankers, in which the greatest potentials to reduce the risk are identified. Banda et al [12] did similar research on the risk management modelling in extreme navigation environment like arctic waters. Collisions between ships are one of the most frequently occurring types of accidents in maritime traffic.…”

Safety Indications of Navigation Audit for Tankers to Develop a Bridge Inspection Method

“…Risk management is the chain of coordinated activities designed to control the risks that can prevent to achieve a successful outcome [24]. Risk management should be associated with the identification and strengthening of conditions which represent the basis for the successful operation [25]. Maritime risks can be classified as follows: Equipment Risks, Operation Risks, Environmental Risks, and Third Party Risks.…”