A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters

Fu, Shanshan; Zhang, Di; Montewka, Jakub; Zio, Enrico; Yan, Xinping

doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2017.07.001

Cited by 56 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Through the above calculation process, we can get the interval probability of the target node. According to the probability mean method, formula [22] is used to defuzzify the TFNs of the target node and obtain the point estimation probability of the root node event.…”

Section: Eventmentioning

confidence: 99%

Information Security Risk Assessment Method for Ship Control System Based on Fuzzy Sets and Attack Trees

Shang

Gong

Chen

et al. 2019

Security and Communication Networks

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Information security risk assessment for industrial control system is usually influenced by uncertain factors. For effectively dealing with problem that the uncertainty and quantification difficulties are caused by subjective and objective factors in the assessment process, an information security risk assessment method based on attack tree model with fuzzy set theory and probability risk assessment technology is proposed, which is applied in a risk scenario of ship control system. Firstly, potential risks of the control system are analyzed and the attack tree model is established. Then triangular fuzzy numbers and expert knowledge are used to determine the factors that influence the probability of a leaf node and the leaf nodes are quantified to obtain the interval probability. Finally, the fuzzy arithmetic is used to determine the interval probability of the root node and the attack path. After defuzzification, the potential risks of the system and the probability of occurrence of each attack path are obtained. Compared with other methods, the proposed method can greatly reduce the impact of subjectivity on the risk assessment of industrial control systems and get more stable, reliable, and scientific evaluation results.

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Section: Eventmentioning

confidence: 99%

Information Security Risk Assessment Method for Ship Control System Based on Fuzzy Sets and Attack Trees

Shang

Gong

Chen

et al. 2019

Security and Communication Networks

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“…Xia et al [4] establish a risk ranking ANFIS model of a ship safety navigation system to accurately achieve risk assessment on sailing ships. Taking uncertainty into consideration, Fu et al [5] assessed the risks of major ship accidents in the Arctic waters through the use of the copula-based fuzzy event tree analysis approach. Chai et al [6] evaluated the risk of ships being involved in ship collisions according to a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Safety Risk Analysis of Unmanned Ships in Inland Rivers Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network

Zhang

Yang

et al. 2019

Journal of Advanced Transportation

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Risk factor identification is the basis for risk assessment. To quantify the safety risks of unmanned vessels in inland rivers, through analysis of previous studies, the safety risk impact factor framework of unmanned vessels in inland rivers is established based on three aspects: the ship aspect, the environmental aspect, and the management and control aspect. Relying on Yangtze River, a fuzzy Bayesian network of the sailing safety risk of unmanned ships in inland rivers is constructed. The proposed safety risk model has considered different operational and environmental factors that affect shipping operations. Based on the fuzzy set theory, historical data, and expert judgments and on previous works are used to estimate the base value (prior values) of various risk factors. The case study assessed the safety risk probabilities of unmanned vessels in Yangtze River. By running uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of the model, a significant change in the likelihood of the occurrence of safety risk is identified, and suggests a dominant factor in risk causation. The research results can provide effective information for analyzing the current safety status for navigation systems of unmanned ships in inland rivers. The estimated safety risk provides early warning to take appropriate preventive and mitigative measures to enhance the overall safety of shipping operations.

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“…With the global warming and a large amount of sea ice melting, the extremely valuable Northern Sea Route (NSR) has led to an increased interest in Arctic activities of ships (Beveridge., 2016;Fu et al, 2017). In this area, navigational operations under icebreaker assistance are key to the success of the safe navigation of merchant vessels Montewka et al, 2015;Valdez Banda et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this area, navigational operations under icebreaker assistance are key to the success of the safe navigation of merchant vessels Montewka et al, 2015;Valdez Banda et al, 2015). It is very difficult to ensure the safety of navigation in Arctic waters when vessels sail independently facing harsh conditions, such as the presence of sea ice, low temperatures, electromagnetic interference, and other complex environmental conditions (Stoddard et al 2015;Fu et al, 2017;Khan et al, 2017;Ostreng et al, 2013). At the same time, ordinary vessels lack the capability of icebreaking, so they are unable to sail independently in a harsh ice environment, which can easily lead to ice accidents (Kum et al, 2015;Fu et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Use of HFACS and fault tree model for collision risk factors analysis of icebreaker assistance in ice-covered waters

et al. 2019

Self Cite

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With the global warming and a large amount of sea ice melting, the available Arctic Sea Route has greatly enhanced the value of Arctic shipping. Ship operations under icebreaker assistance have become an essential way to facilitate the safe navigation of merchant vessels sailing through the Arctic Sea Route in ice-covered waters, but they can also put the crew and the ship in danger caused by a possible collision between the assisted ship and the icebreaker. In this paper, a dedicated Human and Organizational Factors (HoFs) model of ship collision accidents between an assisted ship and an icebreaker is developed and analyzed with the aim to identify and classify collision risk factors. First, a modified model of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) for collision accidents between a ship and an icebreaker in ice-covered waters is proposed, which helps to analyze ship collision reports. Then, a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) model is utilized to analyze the fundamental collision risk factors according to the statistical analysis of accident reports and expert judgments based on the HFACS-SIBCI model. Finally, qualitative analysis is carried out to analyze collision risk factors under icebreaker assistance, where Risk Control Options (RCOs) are formulated. An important guidance for the risk control of ship collisions during icebreaker assistance in ice-covered waters is provided for lawmakers and shipping companies.

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A quantitative approach for risk assessment of a ship stuck in ice in Arctic waters

Cited by 56 publications

References 40 publications

Information Security Risk Assessment Method for Ship Control System Based on Fuzzy Sets and Attack Trees

Information Security Risk Assessment Method for Ship Control System Based on Fuzzy Sets and Attack Trees

Safety Risk Analysis of Unmanned Ships in Inland Rivers Based on a Fuzzy Bayesian Network

Use of HFACS and fault tree model for collision risk factors analysis of icebreaker assistance in ice-covered waters

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