Risk Identification and Evaluation of the Long-term Supply of Manganese Mines in China Based on the VW-BGR Method

Abstract

Manganese is mostly used in the iron and steel industry and serves as an important metal mineral in the national economy. It is difficult to substantially increase the output of China’s manganese ore because it is of low grade and high impurity content. However, as a large consumer in the world, it is very important to ensure the long-term stable supply of this mineral. Collecting historical data on manganese ore in China over the past 20 years, we identified and evaluated risks during the whole process of production, supply, consumption, reserves, and trade of resources using the Volkswagen and German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (VW-BGR) method by selecting nine indicators: current market equilibrium, market price volatility, Reserve/production ratio, import dependence, import concentration, country risks, country concentration and future supply and demand trend. Furthermore, we assessed its economic importance by calculating the contribution of manganese ore involved in different value chains. It shows the same downward trend both in manganese ore consumption and economic importance, and the future demand of manganese ore will slow down, and the global supply will exceed demand. Based on the comprehensive evaluation of supply and demand trends in the past and future, it was concluded that the current market balance, import dependence and country concentration risks are the main driving factors for the supply risk of manganese ore in China, showing higher supply risk than that of the other factors; the resource and geostrategic risks are moderate, and may significantly reduce the supply risk if effective measures are implemented. As per the aforementioned analysis, to address the risk of supply interruption, this study provides some suggestions and measures, such as strengthening resource reserves and low-grade manganese ore utilization at home, actively exploring foreign markets, exploiting overseas resources, expanding import channels, extending the industrial chain, and adopting equity mergers and acquisitions abroad.

An Overview of Indicator Choice and Normalization in Raw Material Supply Risk Assessments

“…Most methods, starting with Goe and Gaustad [58], use the simple linear normalization approach where no net imports result in no supply risk, and 100% NIR results in a supply risk score of 100. Only Li et al [59] define the steps at 40% and 70% NIR as thresholds for their three-level normalization function. Figure 11 shows the normalization functions for J01.…”