Risk guideposts for a safer society: Introduction and overview

Viscusi, W. Kip

doi:10.1007/s11166-019-09307-3

Cited by 13 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 13 publications

(7 reference statements)

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“…16 Estimates derived from this method do not account for the theoretical and empirical evidence that both VSL and VSLY vary with people's age because of changes in remaining life expectancy, life quality, and socioeconomic status. 15,[21][22][23] Therefore, applying an ageinvariant VSL or VSLY might provide bias estimates of the economic cost attributable to air pollution.…”

Section: Implications Of All the Available Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

Population ageing and deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution: a global analysis of economic cost

Yin

Bräuer

Zhang

et al. 2021

The Lancet Planetary Health

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Background The health impacts of ambient air pollution impose large costs on society. Although all people are exposed to air pollution, the older population (ie, those aged ≥60 years) tends to be disproportionally affected. As a result, there is growing concern about the health impacts of air pollution as many countries undergo rapid population ageing. We investigated the spatial and temporal variation in the economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient air pollution and its interaction with population ageing from 2000 to 2016 at global and regional levels. MethodsIn this global analysis, we developed an age-adjusted measure of the value of a statistical life-year (VSLY) to estimate the economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient PM 2•5 pollution using Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 data and country-level socioeconomic information. First, we estimated the global age-specific and cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) attributable to PM 2•5 pollution using the global exposure mortality model and global estimates of exposure at 0•1° × 0•1° (about 11 km × 11 km at the equator) resolution. Second, for each year between 2000 and 2016, we translated the YLLs within each age group into a healthrelated cost using a country-specific, age-adjusted measure of VSLY. Third, we decomposed the major driving factors that contributed to the temporal change in health costs related to PM 2•5 . Finally, we did a sensitivity test to analyse the variability of the estimated health costs to four alternative valuation measures. We identified the uncertainty intervals (UIs) from 1000 draws of the parameters and concentration-response functions by age, cause, country, and year. All economic values are reported in 2011 purchasing power parity-adjusted US dollars. All simulations were done with R, version 3.6.0. Findings Globally, in 2016, PM 2•5 was estimated to have caused 8•42 million (95% UI 6•50-10•52) attributable deaths, which was associated with 163•68 million (116•03-219•44) YLLs. In 2016, the global economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient PM 2•5 pollution for the older population was US$2•40 trillion (1•89-2•93) accounting for 59% (59-60) of the cost for the total population ($4•09 trillion [3•19-5•05]). The economic cost per capita for the older population was $2739 (2160-3345) in 2016, which was 10 times that of the younger population (ie, those aged <60 years). By assessing the factors that contributed to economic costs, we found that increases in these factors changed the total economic cost by 77% for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, 21% for population ageing, 16% for population growth, -41% for age-specific mortality, and -0•4% for PM 2•5 exposure.Interpretation The economic cost of ambient PM 2•5 borne by the older population almost doubled between 2000 and 2016, driven primarily by GDP growth, population ageing, and population growth. Compared with younger people, air pollution leads to disproportionately higher health costs among older people, even a...

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Section: Implications Of All the Available Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

Population ageing and deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution: a global analysis of economic cost

Yin

Bräuer

Zhang

et al. 2021

The Lancet Planetary Health

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“… Notes: VSL figures are based on Viscusi ( 2019 ), updated for inflation. Mortality figures are from Worldometer, July 2, 2020: https://web.archive.org/web/20200702133224/https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ .…”

Section: Appendixmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Notes: VSL figures are based on Viscusi ( 2019 ), updated for inflation. Mortality figures are from Worldometer,…”

Section: Appendixmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pricing the global health risks of the COVID-19 pandemic

Viscusi

2020

J Risk Uncertain

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Policies to address the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) require a balancing of the health risk reductions and the costs of economic dislocations. Application of the value of a statistical life (VSL) to monetize COVID-19 deaths produces a U.S. mortality cost estimate of $1.4 trillion for deaths in the first half of 2020. This article presents worldwide COVID-19 costs for over 100 countries. The total global mortality cost through July 2, 2020 is $3.5 trillion. The United States accounts for 25% of the deaths, but 41% of the mortality cost. Adjustments for the shorter life expectancy and lower income of the victims substantially reduces the estimated monetized losses, but may raise fundamental equity concerns. Morbidity effects of COVID-19 affect many more patients than do the disease’s mortality risks. Consideration of the morbidity effects increase the expected health losses associated with COVID-19 illnesses by 10% to 40%.

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“…13 Estimates derived from this methodology do not account for the theoretical and empirical evidence that both VSL and VSLY vary with people’s age due to changes in remaining life expectancy, life quality and socioeconomic status. 14–16 Therefore, applying an age-invariant VSL or VSLY inaccurately estimates the health economic cost of air pollution, which might bias the optimal allocation of resources for pollution control and public health investments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Economic Cost of Deaths Attributable to Ambient Air Pollution: Disproportionate Burden on the Ageing Population

Yin

Bräuer

Zhang

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Summary Background The health impacts of ambient air pollution impose large costs on society. While all people are exposed to air pollution, older individuals tend to be disproportionally affected. As a result, there is growing concern about the public health impacts of air pollution as many countries undergo rapid population ageing. We investigated the spatial and temporal variation in the health economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient air pollution, and its interaction with population ageing from 2000 to 2016 at global and regional levels. Methods We developed an age-adjusted measure of the value of a statistical life year (VSLY) to estimate the health economic cost attributable to ambient PM2.5 pollution using the Global Burden of Disease 2017 data and country-level socioeconomic information. First, we estimated the global age- and cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLL) attributable to PM2.5 pollution using the global exposure mortality model (GEMM) and global estimates of exposure derived from ground monitoring, satellite retrievals and chemical transport model simulations at 0.1 by 0.1 degree (~11 km at the equator) resolution. Second, for each year between 2000 and 2016, we translated the YLL within each age-group into a health-related economic cost using a country-specific, age-adjusted measure of VSLY. Third, we decomposed the major driving factors that contributed to the temporal change in health costs related to PM2.5. Finally, we conducted a sensitivity test to analyze the variability of the estimated health costs to four alternative valuation measures. We identified the uncertainty intervals (UIs) from 1000 draws of the parameters and exposure-response functions by age, cause, country and year. All economic values are reported in 2011 purchasing-power-parity-adjusted US dollars. Findings Globally, 8.42 million (95% UI: 6.50, 10.52) deaths and 163.68 million (116.03, 219.44) YLL were attributable to ambient PM2.5 in 2016. The average attributable mortality for the older population was 12 times higher than for those younger than 60 years old. In 2016, the global health economic cost of ambient PM2.5 pollution for the older population was US$2.40 trillion (1.89, 2.93) accounting for 59% of the cost for the total population. The health cost for the older population alone was equivalent to 2.1% (1.7%, 2.6%) of global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016. While the economic cost per capita for the older population was US$2739 (2160, 3345) in 2016, the cost per capita for the younger population was only US$268 (205, 335). From 2000 to 2016, the annual global health economic cost for the total population increased from US$2.37 trillion (1.88, 2.87) to US$4.09 trillion (3.19, 5.05). Decomposing the factors that contributed to the rise in health economic costs, we found that increases in GDP per capita, population ageing, population growth, age-specific mortality reduction, and PM2.5 exposure changed the total health economic cost by 77%, 21.2%, 15.6%, -41.1% and -0.2%, respectively. Compared to using an age-invariant VSLY or an age-invariant value of a statistical life (VSL), the estimates of the older population share of the total health economic cost using an age-adjusted VSLY was 2 and 18 percentage points lower, respectively. Interpretation The health economic cost borne by the older population almost doubled between 2000 and 2016, driven primarily by GDP growth, population ageing and population growth. Compared to younger individuals, air pollution leads to disproportionately higher health costs amongst the older population, even after accounting for their relatively shorter remaining life expectancy and increased disability. The age-specific estimates of health economic cost inform the optimal design of air pollution reduction strategies and allocation of healthcare resources. The positive relationship between age and economic costs suggests that countries with severe air pollution and rapid aging rates would particularly benefit from improving their air quality. In addition, strategies aimed at enhancing healthcare services, especially for the older population, may be beneficial for reducing the costs of ambient air pollution.

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Risk guideposts for a safer society: Introduction and overview

Cited by 13 publications

References 13 publications

Population ageing and deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution: a global analysis of economic cost

Population ageing and deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution: a global analysis of economic cost

Pricing the global health risks of the COVID-19 pandemic

Global Economic Cost of Deaths Attributable to Ambient Air Pollution: Disproportionate Burden on the Ageing Population

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