Pricing the global health risks of the COVID-19 pandemic

Viscusi, W. Kip

doi:10.1007/s11166-020-09337-2

Cited by 84 publications

(76 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The coronavirus outbreak has also profoundly impacted the delivery of essential healthcare and management practices in core clinical settings across the globe, including health rationing, which has affected many lives [ 12 ]. The overall cost of health risks due to the COVID-19 pandemic is exceptionally high [ 13 ]. Historical analogies reveal that such situations may lead to long-term issues in accessing healthcare and rising costs for medical treatments, in turn producing a growing demand for alternative ways of coping with health problems and lack of wellbeing [ 14 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability in Forest Visit Numbers in Different Regions and Population Segments before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Pichlerová

Önkal

Bartlett

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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In view of the prevailing preferences for health and recreation revealed by previous studies as the main expected benefits of forest visits, the research presented herein focuses on whether such expectations would translate into a significant increase in the number of forest visits (NFV) following pandemic outbreaks. In this context, a Slovak nationwide survey on forests was conducted, with the main objective of casting light on possible changes in NFV as a coping mechanism or behavioral response to the discomfort and severe restrictions stemming from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the related measures. The survey was administered on a statistically representative sample after the pandemic’s first wave ebbed and restrictions were eased in the summer months of 2020. Collected data were assessed using ANOVA, the results of which supported the importance of forests as places providing opportunities for restoration of mental and physical resources. Forest accessibility as represented by forest coverage and settlement size emerged as a paramount factor affecting NFV rates both before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic and its accompanying measures affected the relationships between NFV and average per capita income, type of employment, and most importantly age, highlighting possible vulnerabilities and disadvantages in certain population segments.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability in Forest Visit Numbers in Different Regions and Population Segments before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Pichlerová

Önkal

Bartlett

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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“…Restricting restaurant dining, urging use of face masks, and promoting social distancing do not lead to risk changes that are so great that the usual VSL figure is inappropriate. If larger risk changes are contemplated, modest adjustments to the VSL level based on the structure of utility functions are feasible (Hammitt, 2020; Viscusi, 2010, 2020).…”

Section: Mortality and Morbidity Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on the estimated risk‐risk tradeoff coupled with the VSL, the monetized value for the risk of hospitalization for COVID‐19 is $3.4 million. Following the procedure described in Viscusi (2020), using this figure in calculating the upper bound value of morbidity costs, the morbidity cost for the hospitalized cases is 50% of the value of the mortality costs.…”

Section: Mortality and Morbidity Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One can construct the VSL beyond usual retirement ages using a value of a statistical life year (VSLY). For purposes of these calculations, based on my past studies reviewed in Viscusi (2020), I adopt a VSLY of $500,000. Using a discount rate of 3%, the procedure below will use the discounted value of this stream of VSLY amounts to construct the VSL for workers beyond age 55.…”

Section: The Critical Role Of Agementioning

confidence: 99%

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Economic lessons for COVID‐19 pandemic policies

Viscusi

2021

Southern Economic Journal

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The COVID‐19 pandemic poses novel health issues. However, the benefits and costs of the pandemic and policies to address it have a familiar economic structure. Chief among the health‐related benefits are the monetized values of the U.S. mortality costs of $3.9 trillion in 2020. The combined U.S. mortality and morbidity costs are $5.5–5.9 trillion. Global mortality costs in 2020 total $10.1 trillion. The skewed age distribution of COVID‐19 illnesses has stimulated increased advocacy of downward adjustments in the value of a statistical life (VSL) for older people. This article examines the role of age for policy analysis generally and for the rationing of scarce medical treatments, such as ventilators. Mortality risk reduction benefits should be based on the reduced probability of death multiplied by the pertinent VSL. Effective communication of risks to foster precautions hinges on the credibility of the information source, which public officials have jeopardized. Efficient control of risks imposes limits on personal freedoms to foster health improvements.

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“…Thus, as has been widely noted, the decline in survival greatly exacerbated racial and ethnic disparities. 12 The burden of a pandemic, of course, extends well beyond mortality. Morbidity alone may be responsible for as much as 40% of the health costs of COVID-19.…”

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confidence: 99%

Learning From Excess Pandemic Deaths

Garber

2021

JAMA

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A comprehensive ability to anticipate and plan for future events distinguishes Homo sapiens from lower animals. But humans are flawed planners. Focusing on the near term has undoubtedly served humans well throughout evolutionary history, yet often leads to unintended consequences. Individuals eat the extra slice of pie with pleasure, but regret the indulgence when they stand on the scale. As small indiscretions accumulate over the years, they threaten health and well-being. Individual present-centeredness is mirrored in the larger society, which struggles with preparations for future needs and long-delayed risks. The maintenance of public infrastructure is a societal responsibility that is often deferred until it can no longer be ignored, as when a bridge collapses. Many are loath to bear the immediate costs of limiting carbon release into the atmosphere despite the growing awareness that eventually the failure to act will lead to environmental catastrophe. There are few rewards to legislators and government leaders who ask constituents to make sacrifices now to avert a future problem that seems as abstract and distant as it is potentially devastating.Preparations for infectious disease outbreaks, like public health measures more generally, are stymied by the disincentives to commit time, effort, and money to plans for distant and uncertain risks. Public health experts have long warned that the US is not adequately prepared for massive influenza pandemics, even though such outbreaks have occurred regularly in the past. 1 National and international agencies had flawed responses to the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, including slow vaccine rollouts. 2 The confused and disorganized response to COVID-19 in much of the US and other nations around the world is especially disappointing because the pandemic emerged about 100 years after the great influenza pandemic of 1918, just when another massive influenza outbreak was expected. Less than 2 years before COVID-19 became known, Bill Gates had presciently warned that the next pandemic might not be caused by an influenza virus but rather by "an unknown pathogen that we see for the first time during an outbreak, as was the case with SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) [and] MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome)" 3 -both caused by coronaviruses similar to SARS-CoV-2.The missteps in responding to an outbreak that not only could be, but largely was, predicted should not give governments confidence that they are prepared for threats that are more speculative and possibly further in the future. Failure to anticipate the scale of the potential damage from such future catastrophes will only exacerbate the tendency to downplay their importance, making it less likely that governments will

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Pricing the global health risks of the COVID-19 pandemic

Cited by 84 publications

References 35 publications

Variability in Forest Visit Numbers in Different Regions and Population Segments before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Variability in Forest Visit Numbers in Different Regions and Population Segments before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Economic lessons for COVID‐19 pandemic policies

Learning From Excess Pandemic Deaths

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