Risk-based methodology for parameter calibration of a reservoir flood control model

Bianucci, Paola; Sordo‐Ward, Álvaro; Pérez, Juan Ignacio Asensio; García‐Palacios, Jaime H.; Mediero, Luis; Garrote, Luís

doi:10.5194/nhess-13-965-2013

Cited by 23 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…MILP was proposed by Bianucci et al [18], based on the mixed integer linear programming theory, minimizing an objective cost (penalty) function considering the hydraulic and operational restrictions. This objective function (P) is based on the weighted sum of two penalty functions, the P s associated with the reservoir volumes (and affecting the dam safety) and the P o associated with the outflows (and affecting the downstream safety), as shown in Equation (20):…”

Section: I-o and Milpmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The reader may refer to Bianucci et al [18] for a detailed description of the MILP model. It should be stressed that, unlike the three other methods, the MILP method requires knowledge in advance of the entire inflow hydrographs, and therefore, it corresponds to an unrealistic situation.…”

Section: I-o and Milpmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The lower right quadrant (Q IV ) represents intermediate situations with higher maximum levels and lower maximum outflows. On the other hand, we implemented the global risk index (I R ) analysis (Figure 4b) proposed by Bianucci et al [18]. This method accounts for a single indicator of the global risk associated for the Z MAX and O MAX , by applying the concept of expected annual damage [53].…”

Section: Rainfall Generation Hydrometeorological Model and Comparisomentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Parametric Flood Control Method for Dams with Gate-Controlled Spillways

Sordo‐Ward

Gabriel-Martín

Bianucci³

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:The study presents a method which can be used to define real-time operation rules for gated spillways (named the K-Method). The K-Method is defined to improve the performance of the Volumetric Evaluation Method (VEM), by adapting it to the particular conditions of the basin, the reservoir, or the spillway. The VEM was proposed by the Spanish engineer Fernando Girón in 1988 and is largely used for the specification of dam management rules during floods in Spain. This method states that outflows are lower than or equal to antecedent inflows, outflows increase when inflows increase, and the higher the reservoir level, the higher the percentage of outflow increase. The K-Method was developed by modifying the VEM and by including a K parameter which affects the released flows. A Monte Carlo environment was developed to evaluate the method under a wide range of inflow conditions (100,000 hydrographs) and with return periods ranging from one to 10,000 years. The methodology was applied to the Talave reservoir, located in the South-East of Spain. The results show that K-values higher than one always reduce the maximum reservoir levels reached in the dam. For K-values ranging from one to ten, and for inflow hydrographs with return periods higher than 100 years, we found a decrease in the maximum levels and outflows, when compared to the VEM. Finally, by carrying out a dam risk analysis, a K-value of 5.25 reduced the expected annual damage by 8.4% compared to the VEM, which represents a lowering of 17.3% of the maximum possible reduction, determined by the application of an optimizer based on mixed integer linear programming (MILP method).

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Section: I-o and Milpmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: I-o and Milpmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Rainfall Generation Hydrometeorological Model and Comparisomentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Parametric Flood Control Method for Dams with Gate-Controlled Spillways

Sordo‐Ward

Gabriel-Martín

Bianucci³

et al. 2017

Water

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“…The conclusions achieved regarding the performance of flood control strategy may be limited to similar hydrological scenarios. To tackle this issue, Bianucci et al [23] proposed a risk-based approach for calibrating the parameters of a flood control operation optimization model. The philosophy of that methodology is applied in this paper for comparing hydropower reservoir flood control operating rules.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic-Multiobjective Comparison of User-Defined Operating Rules. Case Study: Hydropower Dam in Spain

Bianucci

Sordo‐Ward

Moralo

et al. 2015

Water

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Abstract:A useful tool is proposed in this paper to assist dam managers in comparing and selecting suitable operating rules. This procedure is based on well-known multiobjective and probabilistic methodologies, which were jointly applied here to assess and compare flood control strategies in hydropower reservoirs. The procedure consisted of evaluating the operating rules' performance using a simulation fed by a representative and sufficiently large flood event series. These flood events were obtained from a synthetic rainfall series stochastically generated by using the RainSimV3 model coupled with a deterministic hydrological model. The performance of the assessed strategies was characterized using probabilistic variables. Finally, evaluation and comparison were conducted by analyzing objective functions which synthesize different aspects of the rules' performance. These objectives were probabilistically defined in terms of risk and expected values. To assess the applicability and flexibility of the tool, it was implemented in a hydropower dam located in Galicia (Northern Spain). This procedure allowed alternative operating rule to be derived which provided a reasonable trade-off between dam safety, flood control, operability and energy production.

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“…Different families of inflow hydrographs in the reservoir can be obtained based on a parametric rainfall-runoff analysis (Apel et 34 Evaluation of the impact of risk reduction indicators and epistemic uncertainty in dam safety governance al. 2004) and they can be combine with previous pool levels and gates availability to obtain a family of probability distributions for reservoir elevations (or volumes) in the reservoir (Bianucci et al 2013). The spread of this family of curves represents the degree of epistemic uncertainty in the hydrological loading.…”

Section: Dealing With Epistemic Uncertainty In Quantitative Risk Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the impact of risk reduction indicators and epistemic uncertainty in dam safety governance

Morales-Torres¹

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Evaluation of the impact of risk reduction indicators and 3 epistemic uncertainty in dam safety governance AGRADECIMIENTOS En primer lugar, quería agradecer la confianza a nivel personal y profesional que me ha dado el director de la presente tesis doctoral. Gracias Iñaki por darme la oportunidad de trabajar en un tema apasionante como es la seguridad de presas y de desarrollar mis investigaciones en un tema puntero a nivel mundial como el análisis de riesgos, que como comentas, será uno de los principales retos de los ingenieros civiles en las próximas décadas.También quería dar las gracias al segundo director de la tesis, Armando, por su apoyo y por los debates científicos y matemáticos que hemos tenido y que me permitieron desarrollar y mejorar las investigaciones presentadas en este documento.También quería agradecer el apoyo y las sugerencias de mis compañeros en los trabajos de análisis de riesgos aplicado a la seguridad de presas realizados en los últimos años y que son coautores de los artículos que conforman la presente tesis. Sus sugerencias e ideas me han permitido mejorar las investigaciones de esta tesis y analizar los principales retos en este campo. Por este motivo, quería dar las gracias principalmente a Jessica, Javier, Luis y también quería agradecer el apoyo del resto de personas que han pasado por ese concurrido despacho de la UPV en el que estuve casi cinco años.Quería también dar las gracias a mis padres y hermano por su infinito apoyo y confianza durante toda mi vida. Ellos son a los que más tiempo he robado en los últimos años para desarrollar la tesis y, anteriormente, el resto de mis estudios. Por lo tanto, gran parte del mérito de esta tesis doctoral es suyo.Por último, quería dar las gracias a todos mis amigos en Elche y en Valencia por todos esos momentos en estos años de ánimos, risas, charlas y desahogos, ya que también son parte del proceso de desarrollo de una tesis. This thesis is focused in how computed quantitative risk results can be useful to inform dam safety management. It proposes different methods and metrics to deal with the two key issues identified in this process: how risk results can be managed to prioritize potential investments and how uncertainty should be considered in quantitative risk models to inform decision making.Firstly, it is demonstrated that risk reduction indicators are a useful tool to obtain prioritization sequences of potential safety investments, especially in portfolios with a high number of dams. Different indicators for dam safety are assessed, analyzing their relation with equity and efficiency principles.Secondly, it is proposed to consider explicitly and independently natural and epistemic uncertainty in quantitative risk models for dams, following the recommendations developed by other industries. Specifically, a procedure is developed to separate both types of uncertainty in the fragility analysis for the sliding failure mode of gravity dams.Finally, both issues are combined to propose different metrics that analyze the effect of epistemic...

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Risk-based methodology for parameter calibration of a reservoir flood control model

Cited by 23 publications

References 34 publications

A Parametric Flood Control Method for Dams with Gate-Controlled Spillways

A Parametric Flood Control Method for Dams with Gate-Controlled Spillways

Probabilistic-Multiobjective Comparison of User-Defined Operating Rules. Case Study: Hydropower Dam in Spain

Evaluation of the impact of risk reduction indicators and epistemic uncertainty in dam safety governance

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