Risk assessment of tropical storm surges for coastal regions of China

Gao, Yi; Wang, Huanjiong; Liu, G. M.; Sun, Xiaoyu; Fei, X. Y.; Wang, P. T.; LV, Tingting; Xue, Zhenshan; He, Yue

doi:10.1002/2013jd021268

Cited by 73 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The PDI metric integrates intensity, duration, and frequency characteristics of a typhoon (Emanuel, 2005;Knutson et al, 2015;Mohapatra & Vijay Kumar, 2017;Villarini & Vecchi, 2012). However, as the typhoon wind is one of the key factors for storm surge and there exists a correlation between the maximum sustained wind and the storm surge height, if other factors such as coastal relief and geomorphology are ignored, the PDI reflects the storm surge activity in general (Gao et al, 2014). Furthermore, it is noted that it does not entirely reflect the damage done to communities by water (e.g., storm surge driven flooding).…”

Section: Temporal Analysis Of Typhoon Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, it is noted that it does not entirely reflect the damage done to communities by water (e.g., storm surge driven flooding). However, as the typhoon wind is one of the key factors for storm surge and there exists a correlation between the maximum sustained wind and the storm surge height, if other factors such as coastal relief and geomorphology are ignored, the PDI reflects the storm surge activity in general (Gao et al, 2014). Therefore, we use PDI to explain the typhoon destructive potential in this study.…”

Section: Temporal Analysis Of Typhoon Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Considering the increasing impacts and damages from landfalling typhoons, the variability of typhoon hazards at different spatial scales attracts attention of researchers, policy makers, and governments to reduce these impacts (Brundiers, 2018;Gao et al, 2014;McPhillips et al, 2018). The spatial-temporal analysis of hazards can progressively help to reduce these impacts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrating Typhoon Destructive Potential and Social‐Ecological Systems Toward Resilient Coastal Communities

Sajjad

et al. 2019

Earth's Future

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The resilience of coastal communities becomes a critical issue of the social-ecological system adapting to impacts from hazards on coastal well-being. This paper formulates a framework integrating typhoon destructive potential and social-ecological system from a perspective of coastal resilience. Typhoon destructive potential is interpreted using the Power Dissipation Index as a metric. We use the distributional models in geographic information systems to identify the spatial hotspots of high Power Dissipation Index along the coast of Mainland China. Furthermore, we evaluate the community resilience in all identified hotspots with place-based indicators within five potential dimensions (Social, Ecological, Institutional, Economic, and Safety). Though the results show no significant long-term trends in the typhoon destructive potential, statistically significant interdecadal variations are identified in different hotspots during 1949-2014. The resilience assessment results reveal that ecological (predisaster defense) and safety resilience (postdisaster support) are critical issues in achieving coastal community resilience. We argue that improving the ecological stewardship (having great predisaster defense) and adopting integrated approaches contribute to resilience enhancement, providing opportunities to support all the dimensions of community resilience via improving the social-economic-ecological nexus. The integration of typhoon destructive potential and social-ecological system helps to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 13 through risk-informed decision-making. The results from this study have important policy implications for local-scale planning incorporating place-based indicators.Plain Language Summary Tropical cyclones pose serious threats to human well-being globally.Governments and policymakers are particularly interested in risk reduction through effective risk-informed planning and resilience enhancement. To facilitate this, we formulate a framework integrating hazard behavior-explained by landfalling typhoon intensity-and social-ecological systems, which enables us to identify the Power Dissipation Index-based hotspots of typhoon destructive potential. These hotspots are further evaluated for the community resilience assessment to inform the decision makers. While the results show no significant overall increasing trend in typhoon destructive potential for most of the hotspot regions during the study period , interdecadal variations are found, with a significant increasing trend for some regions (90% confidence). It is important to note that the results from the resilience assessment show that many communities lack in the ecological and safety dimensions of community resilience, which is critical. We recommend an improved ecological stewardship for community resilience enhancement. Adopting the proposed framework can also attribute toward Sustainable Development Goal 13 achievement through the corrective decision-making for risk reduction related policy implications.

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Section: Temporal Analysis Of Typhoon Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Temporal Analysis Of Typhoon Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrating Typhoon Destructive Potential and Social‐Ecological Systems Toward Resilient Coastal Communities

Sajjad

et al. 2019

Earth's Future

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“…TCs on the coast of China generally develop from the north-western Pacific, and there are about 6-10 landfall TCs in a typical year, with one to two additional bypassing storms coming close enough to the coast of China to cause significant damage [17], e.g., three extreme storms in 1956, 1969, and 1994 resulted in more than 7400 human casualties. The historical best-track typhoon datasets are maintained by the Tropical Cyclone Data Centre in the China Meteorological Administration, which provides six-hourly typhoon locations and intensities [18].…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical Cyclone-Induced Hazards Caused by Storm Surges and Large Waves on the Coast of China

You

2019

Geosciences

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The mainland coast of China is about 18,000 km long and houses about 70% of China’s largest cities and 50% of its population. For the last few decades, the rapid growth of the Chinese economy has resulted in extensive development of the coastal infrastructure and property, large-scale expansion of coastal ports, excessive reclamation of coastal land, and a significant increase in the coastal population. Previous studies have indicated that tropical cyclones (TCs) have struck the coast of China at a higher frequency and intensity, and TC-induced coastal hazards have resulted in heavy human losses and huge losses to the Chinese coastal economy. In analyzing the long-term and most recent coastal hazard data collected on the coast of China, this study has found that TC-induced storm surges are responsible for 88% of the direct coastal economic losses, while TC-induced large coastal waves have caused heavy loss of human lives, and that the hazard-caused losses are shown to increase spatially from the north to south, peak in the southern coastal sector, and well correlate to storm wave energy flux. The frequency and intensity of coastal hazards on the coast of China are expected to increase in response to future changing TC conditions and rising sea levels. A simple two-parameter conceptual model is also presented for the assessment of coastal inundation and erosion hazards on the coast of China.

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“…Between 1990 and2010, storm surge disasters caused economic losses of approximately RMB 10.5 billion and 148 deaths, and affected 11.5 million annually. (Gao et al, 2014). Thus, storm surge prediction and rapid disaster Ocean Sci.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multivariate analysis of extreme storm surges in a semi-enclosed bay

Luo

Shi

Wang

2017

Preprint

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Abstract:The prediction of extreme storm surges is a critical task for coastal area protection. This study 10 examines extreme storm surges in Beibu Bay, a semi-enclosed bay in the South China Sea, and their joint probabilities. A method for the advanced prediction of the extreme storm surges is proposed using a multivariate extreme statistical method. We further present practical guidelines of the proposed multivariate analysis method, including guidelines for simulation. The simulation can be extended to multidimensional data to simplify computation, so the proposed approach can be 15 extended to use more points' data from the semi-enclosed bay for predicting extreme storm surges probabilities. A practical case study illustrates the application of the proposed techniques for extreme storm surges prediction. A comparison of the conditional probabilities obtained from observations and simulation data show that the proposed method is effective.

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Risk assessment of tropical storm surges for coastal regions of China

Cited by 73 publications

References 31 publications

Integrating Typhoon Destructive Potential and Social‐Ecological Systems Toward Resilient Coastal Communities

Integrating Typhoon Destructive Potential and Social‐Ecological Systems Toward Resilient Coastal Communities

Tropical Cyclone-Induced Hazards Caused by Storm Surges and Large Waves on the Coast of China

Multivariate analysis of extreme storm surges in a semi-enclosed bay

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