Abstract. We use a novel statistical approach-MGPD to analyze the joint probability distribution of storm surge events at two sites and present a warning method for storm surges at two adjacent positions in Beibu Gulf, using the sufficiently long field data on surge levels at two sites. The methodology also develops the procedure of application of MGPD, which includes joint threshold and Monte Carlo simulation, to handle multivariate extreme values analysis. By comparing the simulation result with analytic solution, it is shown that the relative error of the Monte Carlo simulation is less than 8.6 %. By running MGPD model based on long data at Beihai and Dongfang, the simulated potential surge results can be employed in storm surge warnings of Beihai and joint extreme water level predictions of two sites.
Abstract:The prediction of extreme storm surges is a critical task for coastal area protection. This study 10 examines extreme storm surges in Beibu Bay, a semi-enclosed bay in the South China Sea, and their joint probabilities. A method for the advanced prediction of the extreme storm surges is proposed using a multivariate extreme statistical method. We further present practical guidelines of the proposed multivariate analysis method, including guidelines for simulation. The simulation can be extended to multidimensional data to simplify computation, so the proposed approach can be 15 extended to use more points' data from the semi-enclosed bay for predicting extreme storm surges probabilities. A practical case study illustrates the application of the proposed techniques for extreme storm surges prediction. A comparison of the conditional probabilities obtained from observations and simulation data show that the proposed method is effective.
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