Risk assessment of offshore crude oil pipeline failure

Aljaroudi, Alireda; Khan, Faisal; Akintürk, Ayhan; Haddara, Moutaz; Thodi, Premkumar

doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2015.07.004

Cited by 87 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Risk is defined as the expected financial loss, which is the product of the failure probability and its consequences. 19 In the case of one impact event, the risk can be estimated using equation (6a). Moreover, when a proactive protection measurement is taken, the corresponding risk can be expressed using equation (6b).…”

Section: Methodologies For Consequence Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[14][15][16] Further, along with the inspection, maintenance, and repair costs, risk-based integrity models were proposed to investigate the corrosion degradation mechanism of offshore pipelines, including the pipeline construction quality and critical year of an asset. [17][18][19] Moreover, based on the minimum life-cycle cost principle, riskbased assessment was used in cooperation with multi-objective optimisation algorithms to identify the appropriate maintenance and renewal strategy for pipeline networks. 20,21 However, the risk-based assessment of offshore pipelines is still in its infancy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk-based integrity model for offshore pipelines subjected to impact loads from falling objects

Jiang

Dong

2020

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part M:

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Impacts from falling objects can pose a major risk of failure for offshore pipelines. Appropriate protection measures are required to reduce this risk. To achieve this goal, a risk-based integrity model is proposed. Based on the surrogate model of genetic programming, the finite element analysis is cooperated with the probabilistic method to consider nonlinear effects on the failure probability. The required validations are performed to demonstrate the accuracy. The cumulative prospect theory is introduced to encapsulate the risk-attitudes in the consequence evaluation. This integrated model is further extended to determine an optimal protection strategy to obtain the maximum return on an investment, as well as ensure safety of the infrastructures. A case study is used to illustrate the methodology used to determine the burial depth, which is a primary protection measure. The parametric study showed that the soil property and pipeline wall thickness have a considerable influence on the risk. A comprehensive overview of the outputs from different risk-attitudes is also provided. This study can provide a reference for offshore pipeline safety design, and the proposed model can be used as a potential guideline for other researchers to develop customised risk assessment models.

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Section: Methodologies For Consequence Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk-based integrity model for offshore pipelines subjected to impact loads from falling objects

Jiang

Dong

2020

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part M:

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“…To address this issue, Li et al (2014) developed a binary logistic regression method to obtain prior probabilities of the BN nodes by utilising the existing maritime accident data resources. Other recent contributions related to the risk assessment of oil and gas pipelines using Bayesian networks are available in (Aljaroudi et al, 2015;Li et al, 2016b;Wu et al, 2017;Li et al, 2017). Bayesian networks have been applied for conducting dynamic risk assessment of deepwater managed pressure drilling and under-balanced drilling operations by Bhandari et al (2015).…”

Section: Applications In Risk Assessmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applications of Bayesian networks and Petri nets in safety, reliability, and risk assessments: A review

2019

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System safety, reliability and risk analysis are important tasks that are performed throughout the system lifecycle to ensure the dependability of safety-critical systems. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approaches are comprehensive, structured and logical methods widely used for this purpose. PRA approaches include, but not limited to, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Event Tree Analysis (ETA). Growing complexity of modern systems and their capability of behaving dynamically make it challenging for classical PRA techniques to analyse such systems accurately. For a comprehensive and accurate analysis of complex systems, different characteristics such as functional dependencies among components, temporal behaviour of systems, multiple failure modes/states for components/systems, and uncertainty in system behaviour and failure data are needed to be considered. Unfortunately, classical approaches are not capable of accounting for these aspects. Bayesian networks (BNs) have gained popularity in risk assessment applications due to their flexible structure and capability of incorporating most of the above mentioned aspects during analysis. Furthermore, BNs have the ability to perform diagnostic analysis. Petri Nets are another formal graphical and mathematical tool capable of modelling and analysing dynamic behaviour of systems. They are also increasingly used for system safety, reliability and risk evaluation. This paper presents a review of the applications of Bayesian networks and Petri nets in system safety, reliability and risk assessments. The review highlights the potential usefulness of the BN and PN based approaches over other classical approaches, and relative strengths and weaknesses in different practical application scenarios.

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“…It is vulnerable to failure due to complex alternating stress and external factors [1,2,3]. The phenomenon of submarine pipeline hanging is inevitable due to the scouring of sea water, and the hanging pipeline is subjected to alternating load under the action of sea wave and it is, hence, sensitive to fatigue failure [4]. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the corrosive fatigue of submarine pipelines in service to prevent the failure.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Corrosive Fatigue Life of Submarine Pipelines of API 5L X56 Steel Materials

et al. 2019

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Corrosive fatigue failure of submarine pipelines is very common because the pipeline is immersed in a sea environment. In Bohai sea, many old pipelines are made of API 5L X56 steel materials, and it is necessary to provide an accurate method for predicting the residual life of these pipelines. As Paris law has been proven to be reliable in predicting the fatigue crack growth in metal materials, the two constants in Paris law for API 5L X56 steel materials are obtained by using a new proposed shape factor based on the analysis of experimental data measured from fatigue tests on compact tension specimens immersed in the water of Bohai sea. The results of the newly proposed shape factor show that, for a given stress intensity factor range (ΔK), the fatigue crack growth rate (da/dN) in seawater is 1.6 times of that that in air. With the increase of fatigue crack growth rate, the influence of seawater on corrosive fatigue decreases gradually. Thereafter, a finite element model for analyzing the stress intensity factor of fatigue crack in pipelines is built, and the corrosive fatigue life of a submarine pipeline is then predicted according to the Paris law. To verify the presented method, the fatigue crack growth (FCG) behavior of an API 5L X56 pipeline with an initial crack under cyclic load is tested. Comparison between the prediction and the tested result indicates that the presented method is effective in evaluating the corrosive fatigue life of API 5L X56 pipelines.

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Risk assessment of offshore crude oil pipeline failure

Cited by 87 publications

References 15 publications

Risk-based integrity model for offshore pipelines subjected to impact loads from falling objects

Risk-based integrity model for offshore pipelines subjected to impact loads from falling objects

Applications of Bayesian networks and Petri nets in safety, reliability, and risk assessments: A review

Prediction of Corrosive Fatigue Life of Submarine Pipelines of API 5L X56 Steel Materials

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