Applications of Bayesian networks and Petri nets in safety, reliability, and risk assessments: A review

Abstract

System safety, reliability and risk analysis are important tasks that are performed throughout the system lifecycle to ensure the dependability of safety-critical systems. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approaches are comprehensive, structured and logical methods widely used for this purpose. PRA approaches include, but not limited to, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Event Tree Analysis (ETA). Growing complexity of modern systems and their capability of behaving dynamically make it challenging for classical PRA techniques to analyse such systems accurately. For a comprehensive and accurate analysis of complex systems, different characteristics such as functional dependencies among components, temporal behaviour of systems, multiple failure modes/states for components/systems, and uncertainty in system behaviour and failure data are needed to be considered. Unfortunately, classical approaches are not capable of accounting for these aspects. Bayesian networks (BNs) have gained popularity in risk assessment applications due to their flexible structure and capability of incorporating most of the above mentioned aspects during analysis. Furthermore, BNs have the ability to perform diagnostic analysis. Petri Nets are another formal graphical and mathematical tool capable of modelling and analysing dynamic behaviour of systems. They are also increasingly used for system safety, reliability and risk evaluation. This paper presents a review of the applications of Bayesian networks and Petri nets in system safety, reliability and risk assessments. The review highlights the potential usefulness of the BN and PN based approaches over other classical approaches, and relative strengths and weaknesses in different practical application scenarios.

Uncertainty handling in fault tree based risk assessment: State of the art and future perspectives

“…In this regard, integrating strategies such as using a Bayesian updating mechanism could be considered as the most appropriate method for such an iteration of the analysis. In recent years, as stated in [153], Bayesian updating mechanisms have been widely used as an alternative method to fault tree analysis because of their flexible architecture and ability to reason about uncertainty. In light of the multiple merits provided by the Bayesian updating mechanism, it is worth additional exploration.…”

Assessment of emergency consequences and hazardous factors impact from the process of explosive conversion products and materials disposal

“…Analysis of the existing methodological support for assessing the risk of an emergency shows that, depending on the specifics of hazardous production facilities, there are many different approaches to the assessment of the emergency risk [3,4].…”

Reliability evaluation of dynamic face recognition systems based on improved Fuzzy Dynamic Bayesian Network

“…The reliability analysis gradually extends from electronic and aerospace systems to many other fields, such as machinery and communication. The common methods of system reliability analysis include fault tree analysis, 2 Markov process, 3 Monte Carlo simulation, 4 failure mode effects and criticality analysis, 5 reliability block diagram, 6 dynamic fault tree, 7 fuzzy numbers, 8 GO methodology, 9 Petri net, 10 universal generating function, 11 binary decision diagrams, 12 Bayesian network, 13,14 and dynamic Bayesian network. [15][16][17][18] Most of the methods suppose that the variables of system reliability only have two states (either 1 or 0).…”