Risk assessment of hazardous materials transportation: A review of research progress in the last thirty years

Risk Assessment Framework for Selecting the Safer Route for Hazmat Transportation Based on Accident Database and Vulnerability Models

“…According to a review of hazmat risk assessment literature between 1991 and 2020, many current risk assessment models are based on various simplifying assumptions, which leads to high uncertainty in the results. 35 These limitations/simplifying assumptions in reported literature include (i) applying a common national frequency uniformly on all road segments 29,30 or assuming that the frequency is uniform over entire administrative districts, 36 (ii) not using historical accident data and incident probabilities, 37,29 which are indispensable for a practicable QRA, and (iii) considering only population densities along the route for calculating the number of fatalities, which does not take into account the occupants of vehicles on the road who are more susceptible in the event of an accident. 36,37 All of these imply that the accuracy and practicability of risk assessment models must be improved further.…”

“…Furthermore, it is necessary to incorporate the risk amplification or mitigation contribution of road characteristics and traffic conditions. 35 It is also important to take into account both the frequency and the consequences of hazmat transportation accidents in the risk assessment procedure. Though a number of researchers have investigated the impact of road characteristics on frequencies, 23,25,33 few efforts have been made to integrate both frequencies derived from historical data and consequences in the risk assessment procedure.…”

“…A review of existing methods has led to the conclusion that, even though MCDM or MOOP can give a quick solution, a detailed QRA is often necessary to compare the level of risk in different routes/segments and evaluate and justify risk mitigation measures. According to a review of hazmat risk assessment literature between 1991 and 2020, many current risk assessment models are based on various simplifying assumptions, which leads to high uncertainty in the results . These limitations/simplifying assumptions in reported literature include (i) applying a common national frequency uniformly on all road segments , or assuming that the frequency is uniform over entire administrative districts, (ii) not using historical accident data and incident probabilities, , which are indispensable for a practicable QRA, and (iii) considering only population densities along the route for calculating the number of fatalities, which does not take into account the occupants of vehicles on the road who are more susceptible in the event of an accident. , …”

“…All of these imply that the accuracy and practicability of risk assessment models must be improved further. Furthermore, it is necessary to incorporate the risk amplification or mitigation contribution of road characteristics and traffic conditions . It is also important to take into account both the frequency and the consequences of hazmat transportation accidents in the risk assessment procedure.…”

Consequence Assessment Model for Gasoline Transport: Belgrade Case Study Based on Multi-Agent Simulation

“…In June 2020, an accident involving a tanker on the Shenhai highway in China caused the death of 20 people, 175 injuries, and the destruction of several houses [6]. Similar accidents in Mexico and India at the end of 2020 caused the death of several people [7]. Therefore, the main research question of this paper is how to estimate the number of casualties in locations where there has never been an accident involving a vehicle transporting dangerous goods.…”