Risk Assessment Framework for Selecting the Safer Route for Hazmat Transportation Based on Accident Database and Vulnerability Models

Abstract

Accidents involving the transportation of hazardous materials (hazmats) may cause fatalities, injuries, and property damage along the transport route. It is thus imperative to adopt and implement a risk assessment and management framework that can be easily employed by decision/policymakers. This paper presents a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework to select the safest route for the transport of hazardous materials utilizing an accident database and human vulnerability models. Statistical models from relevant accident studies are used to determine the accident enhancing/mitigating contributions of different road geometrical features, which are then applied to data derived from an available database to determine accident frequencies. Consequences of accidents with humans are assessed using ALOHA and vulnerability models, while the risk is determined by combining both accident frequencies and consequences. The proposed method has been applied in a case study to assess the relative risks involved in LPG transportation along two different routes in Bangladesh and to identify the safer route. The effectiveness of a number of risk reduction measures has been assessed to manage risks, and the results of the risk assessment have been spatially presented on a geographical map. This map will help decision makers to make routing decisions and identify route sections that are most at risk to take appropriate emergency response actions and allocate medical and support services during emergencies.