Risk assessment for structural design criteria of FPSO systems. Part II: Consequence models and applications to determination of target reliabilities

Heredia‐Zavoni, Ernesto; Montes-Iturrizaga, R.; Faber, Michael Havbro; Straub, Daniel

doi:10.1016/j.marstruc.2012.05.001

Cited by 19 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Instead, some of the more recent insights derived from practical applications as well as from research in the area of risk assessment are presented and discussed in the following. This discussion will then form part of the basis for the formulation of a risk assessment framework for FPSOs presented in this paper and its application to decision making on target reliability indices for structural design which is shown in a companion paper [1].…”

Section: On Best Practice Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To extend the above model to include the indirect consequences, nodes representing the follow-up events can be added to the network, in accordance with the scenarios given earlier. [1].…”

Section: Bayesian Probabilistic Network For Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…5 it is illustrated how the failure rate mðpÞ as well as the normalized risk reduction costs C y ðpÞ q=C x N PE k g depend on p. In the illustration it is assumed that the cost of risk reduction is linear in the decision parameter p. The failure rate mðpÞ, on the other hand, is in general a non-linear function of p. The maximum acceptable failure rate is obtained for the minimum value of p for which the above inequality holds, assuming that the failure rate decreases continuously with increasing p. Any value of p larger than this value can be considered acceptable. An application example of the LQI principle is presented in a companion paper [1].…”

Section: Risk Acceptance Criteria -The Life Quality Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The process of design optimization may then be efficiently facilitated by use of the developed risk models, the BPNs and the concept of the LQI. Applications of the generic risk assessment framework and the RAC to decision making on target reliability indices for structural design of components of FPSOs are presented in a companion paper [1].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk assessment for structural design criteria of FPSO systems. Part I: Generic models and acceptance criteria

et al. 2012

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Section: On Best Practice Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To extend the above model to include the indirect consequences, nodes representing the follow-up events can be added to the network, in accordance with the scenarios given earlier. [1].…”

Section: Bayesian Probabilistic Network For Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Risk Acceptance Criteria -The Life Quality Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk assessment for structural design criteria of FPSO systems. Part I: Generic models and acceptance criteria

et al. 2012

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“…As a result, the existing relevant standards, such as NORSOK and API, and classification rules are mostly limited to the provisions of general guidelines. No systematic investigation into the safety of FLNG has been undertaken to date, and the closest previous studies were on the risk of semi-submersible rigs and FPSOs (Jin, 2015;Bai, 2016;Sohn et al, 2013;Faber et al, 2012;Heredia-Zavoni et al, 2012). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential risk of vapour cloud explosion in FLNG liquefaction modules

et al. 2018

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This version is available at https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/61716/ Strathprints is designed to allow users to access the research output of the University of Strathclyde. Unless otherwise explicitly stated on the manuscript, Copyright © and Moral Rights for the papers on this site are retained by the individual authors and/or other copyright owners. Please check the manuscript for details of any other licences that may have been applied. You may not engage in further distribution of the material for any profitmaking activities or any commercial gain. You may freely distribute both the url (https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/) and the content of this paper for research or private study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge.Any correspondence concerning this service should be sent to the Strathprints administrator: strathprints@strath.ac.ukThe Strathprints institutional repository (https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk) is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde research outputs. It has been developed to disseminate open access research outputs, expose data about those outputs, and enable the management and persistent access to Strathclyde's intellectual output. still evolving and their safety has yet to be fully and objectively evaluated. This paper explores the probability of occurrence of accidents leading to vapour cloud explosion at one of the topside liquefaction modules of an FLNG. The worst possible scenario with the maximum tolerable probability is identified and the impact of the corresponding vapour cloud explosion is estimated. The strength of the structures supporting the neighbouring modules was examined using finite element analysis to determine if the accident has a potential of escalating to neighbouring modules. Potential Risk of Vapour Cloud Explosion in FLNG Liquefaction ModulesIt is found that the current levels of safety gaps between the liquefaction modules may be insufficient for the structural arrangement in place. It is thought that a new structural design using circular pipes as the structural elements instead of the I-beams may enhance the integrity of the top-side supporting structures against the impact of potential vapour cloud explosion. The effectiveness of the new structure is demonstrated by comparing it to the conventional supporting structure using I-beam members. This also implies that, by using pipe elements, the safety gaps can be reduced, thus making it possible to optimise the topside arrangement more easily.

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Bayesian network for risk‐informed inspection planning in ships

Kim

Hamann

Sotiralis

et al. 2018

Beton und Stahlbetonbau

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We present the development of a Bayesian Network (BN) model for risk assessment of ships to facilitate risk‐informed inspection planning. The BN consists of four sub‐modules: cause, vulnerability, consequence and inspection. These modules are set up in a generic manner by consideration of readily available information (the indicators), such as ship type, ship size, operational conditions. On this basis, we define representative models of the ship and its components, which are parameterized by the indicators and quantities that can be related to the indicators. The generic approach enables a fast and holistic risk assessment of a larger number of ships even if only limited information is available. The BN approach facilitates the straightforward inclusion of new information, e.g. from inspection and monitoring. It has the additional advantage of allowing easier communication of the model to non‐experts. Through numerical applications, we demonstrate how the calculated risks can be used to prioritize inspections and how new information can be incorporated to update risk estimates.

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Risk assessment for structural design criteria of FPSO systems. Part II: Consequence models and applications to determination of target reliabilities

Cited by 19 publications

References 4 publications

Risk assessment for structural design criteria of FPSO systems. Part I: Generic models and acceptance criteria

Risk assessment for structural design criteria of FPSO systems. Part I: Generic models and acceptance criteria

Potential risk of vapour cloud explosion in FLNG liquefaction modules

Bayesian network for risk‐informed inspection planning in ships

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