Risk assessment for comprehensive meteorological disaster of winter wheat based on multisource gridded data: A case study in the upper Huaihe River basin, China

Abstract

Crop production security is an essential guarantee for the prosperity of country and the well-being of people. In the context of frequent occurrence of extreme weather events, how to comprehensively evaluate the risk of multiple hazards and quantitatively describe spatial differences will be one of the significant topics in agricultural disaster mitigation. In this study, based on the gridded meteorological data and other datasets (crop, socioeconomic, disaster loss, and actual planting location) from 2000 to 2020, multihazard risk model for different growth period was built to assess the comprehensive risk of winter wheat in the upper Huaihe River basin (UHRB), China. The conclusions were as follows: (a) The spatial distribution of continuous rain risk increased gradually from north to south; the area of the highest lodging risk was located in the east; the spatial trend of drought risk was the highest in the south and the lowest in the northeast. (b) The weights of continuous rain, lodging, and drought disasters were 41, 31, and 28%, respectively, which indicated that winter wheat in UHRB was most affected by continuous rain during the harvest period. (c) The spatial distribution of comprehensive disaster risk assessment showed that the higher risk areas were located in the central and southern parts (Huaibin, Linquan, Luoshan). After verification by historical disasters information, the results are credible, providing a concrete scientific basis for implementing regional agricultural disaster response measures.

Spatial Analysis and Risk Assessment of Meteorological Disasters Affecting Cotton Cultivation in Xinjiang: A Comprehensive Model Approach

“…The research spans countries such as China [20], India [21,22], the United States [23], Thailand [24], the Philippines [25], and Nepal [26]. Risk assessments and national actions (comprehensive risk surveys) have been conducted for major grain crops, such as rice [27], wheat [28], and maize [29], in various regions of China. However, disaster risk assessments for cotton are lacking, especially in Xinjiang, China's largest cotton-producing region.…”