Spatial Analysis and Risk Assessment of Meteorological Disasters Affecting Cotton Cultivation in Xinjiang: A Comprehensive Model Approach

Abstract

A systematic understanding of the spatial distribution of meteorological disasters that affect cotton growth, such as rainstorms, gales, and hail, is important for reducing plant losses and promoting sustainable development. Our study aimed to evaluate the risk of meteorological disasters during cotton growth and analyze their spatial distribution and driving factors. A risk assessment model for major meteorological disasters during cotton cultivation in Xinjiang was established by integrating entropy weight methods and an analytic hierarchy process. A cotton meteorological disaster risk assessment index system, including the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, hazards of disaster-causing factors, and exposure of disaster-bearing bodies, was constructed using Google Earth Engine. We determined the comprehensive risk levels of major meteorological disasters for cotton in various regions of Xinjiang. Research shows that the selection of indicators is very important, and crop risk assessment with a clear disaster-bearing body can make the results more accurate. It is necessary to consider the risk assessment of multiple disaster species for meteorological disaster risk assessment. The results revealed spatial differences in the meteorological disaster risk for cotton in 2020. The very high and high risks for cotton accounted for 42% of the cotton planting area, mainly distributed in Karamay, Tacheng, Kashgar, Changjizhou, Kezhou, and Ilizhou. Consequently, this study provides a scientific basis for cotton cultivation in Xinjiang, China.