Risk Analysis of Reservoir Flood Routing Calculation Based on Inflow Forecast Uncertainty

Abstract

Possible risks in reservoir flood control and regulation cannot be objectively assessed by deterministic flood forecasts, resulting in the probability of reservoir failure. We demonstrated a risk analysis of reservoir flood routing calculation accounting for inflow forecast uncertainty in a sub-basin of Huaihe River, China. The Xinanjiang model was used to provide deterministic flood forecasts, and was combined with the Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor (HUP) to quantify reservoir inflow uncertainty in the probability density function (PDF) form. Furthermore, the PDFs of reservoir water level (RWL) and the risk rate of RWL exceeding a defined safety control level could be obtained. Results suggested that the median forecast (50th percentiles) of HUP showed better agreement with observed inflows than the Xinanjiang model did in terms of the performance measures of flood process, peak, and volume. In addition, most observations (77.2%) were bracketed by the uncertainty band of 90% confidence interval, with some small exceptions of high flows. Results proved that this framework of risk analysis could provide not only the deterministic forecasts of inflow and RWL, but also the fundamental uncertainty information (e.g., 90% confidence band) for the reservoir flood routing calculation.

Coordination and order risk assessment of water and land resource system based on periphery and synergetics theories

“…Economic development is the main restricting factor and is a potential safety risk. Table 1 suggests that the following factors have the most significant impacts on the coordinated development of the system (correlation>0.65): A 1 (the population density), A 4 (the proportion of irrigation performed using water-saving techniques), B 6 (the GDP per capita), B 7 (the economic density), B 9 (the proportion of GDP from tertiary industry), B 10 (the water consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP), C 12 (the degree of coordination of water and land resources), C 13 (the surface drainage rate) and C 15 (the amount of fertilizer (effective component) per unit area of agricultural land). Particular consideration should be given to these factors if the degree of coordinated order of water and land resources increases.…”

“…Risk assessments of water and land resource systems have received attention from researchers around the globe, and fruitful results have been achieved in various areas, such as the climatological and ecological benefits of water and land resources [3,4] and managing risks related to the quantity of water and land resources [5,6] . The theory of synergetics is applicable to analyze the relationships between the elements of a dissipative system as well as the overall evolutionary state of a system and can reflect cyclic trends and processes that control interactions between the subsystems of a system [7] .…”

On the Operational Flood Forecasting Practices Using Low-Quality Data Input of a Distributed Hydrological Model

“…It can be coupled with any hydrological model or forecasting scheme to obtain probabilistic forecasting results. Currently, BFS has been used in different river basins in the world [40][41][42][43][44][45]. BFS includes three sub-models: precipitation uncertainty processor (PUP), HUP and integrator (INT).…”

Assessment of Sediment Impact on the Risk of River Diversion during Dam Construction: A Simulation-Based Project Study on the Jing River, China

“…After the simulation, R-h u curves can be obtained with the water level values at the upstream cofferdam. The core computational method is the water balance calculation, a common hydrology technique for determining the time and magnitude of a flood on a watercourse [65,66]. As the incoming flood process Q in describes the flood near the dam site, the water balance calculation between upstream and downstream of the diversion tunnel can generate the water level at the upstream cofferdam.…”