Risk Analysis of Islamic State (IS) Network Development in Southeast Asia Based on 3D Matrix

Abstract

The threat of terror in Southeast Asia has been currently divided into three generations of terror: Al-Qaeda terror network, ISIS terror network and IS terror network.This study aims at providing a risk analysis on the development of the Islamic State network in Southeast Asia. This study employed Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach, TOPSIS. The AHP method is used to give weight to risk identification criteria. The TOPSIS method is used to provide the value analysis of threats, vulnerability, and impact in order to determine the threat-based risk level assessment, vulnerability, and the impact of the TOPSIS calculation results. The risk analysis of the development of Islamic State in Southeast Asia resulted three countries were categorized in the category of Low: Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. Indonesia has the value of risk factor of 0.170; Malaysia has the value of risk factor of 0.088 and Thailand has the value of risk factor of 0.176. On the other hand, the Philippines has the value of risk factor of 0.351 in the category of Guarded.