Risk analysis for dengue suitability in Africa using the ArcGIS predictive analysis tools (PA tools)

Attaway, David F.; Jacobsen, Kathryn H.; Falconer, Allan; Manca, Germana; Waters, Nigel

doi:10.1016/j.actatropica.2016.02.018

Cited by 27 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The ranges of environmental suitability with respect to the bioclimatic variables and the corresponding probability percentages are shown below: (Bio1) Annual Mean Temperature of~28-32.5 C with~64%, the result is comparable with the optimum range for the species ranging from~25 to 32 C (Khormi and Kumar, 2014). It should be noted that if the temperature exceeds 30 C, the adult reproductive capacity is affected (Carrington et al, 2013) and the extrinsic incubation period of the viruses decreases (Watts et al, 1987); however, (Attaway et al, 2016), pointed out that in laboratory tests, the mosquito has shown competition between vectors at 35 C (Lozano-Fuentes et al, 2012). (Bio2) Mean diurnal range (mean of monthly (max temp -min temp) of 14-15 C with~85%, this being consistent with other studies that suggest that the lower temperature range optimal for A. aegypti is 14-18 C) (Khormi and Kumar, 2014).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 91%

Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia

Cabrera

Selvaraj

2020

Heliyon

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The Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika viruses are arboviruses predominantly transmitted to humans through the bite of the female mosquito Aedes aegypti. Currently, the vector represents a potential epidemiological risk in several Latin American and Pacific countries. However, little is known about the geographical distribution and bioclimatic suitability of this mosquito in the projected climate change scenarios in Colombia. Using a species distribution model of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) based on presence-only records obtained from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), land elevation obtained from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and bioclimatic variables (WorldClim), we produced environmental suitability maps of this mosquito vector for present and future geographic distribution. The future distribution were constructed based on the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) for the years 2050 and 2070, projected according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For the current conditions, Colombia has~140,612.8 square km of areas with the possible presence of the vector; however, for the future, this will be reduced by more than 30%. For the future conditions, the suitable areas for A. aegypti decreased compared to the present, mainly for the year 2070 under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, however, the probability of mosquito occurrence increases in some departments of Colombia. Areas susceptible to the presence of A. aegypti are affected by climate change. The Caribbean and Andean regions have a high probability of mosquito distribution; therefore, control and epidemiological surveillance are required in these areas. The results can serve as an input to define preventive and control measures, especially in areas with a higher risk of contracting the virus.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 91%

Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia

Cabrera

Selvaraj

2020

Heliyon

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“…Our study demonstrates that hotspots of presence of a particular vector species is indeed correlated with detection of virus in those areas. By integrating vector, virus and environmental data in spatial models, studies such as this facilitate disease risk analysis and the development and improvement of vector and virus monitoring and control efforts [ 97 – 99 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological niche modeling of Aedes mosquito vectors of chikungunya virus in southeastern Senegal

Richman

Diallo

et al. 2018

Parasites Vectors

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BackgroundChikungunya virus (CHIKV) originated in a sylvatic cycle of transmission between non-human animal hosts and vector mosquitoes in the forests of Africa. Subsequently the virus jumped out of this ancestral cycle into a human-endemic transmission cycle vectored by anthropophilic mosquitoes. Sylvatic CHIKV cycles persist in Africa and continue to spill over into humans, creating the potential for new CHIKV strains to enter human-endemic transmission. To mitigate such spillover, it is first necessary to delineate the distributions of the sylvatic mosquito vectors of CHIKV, to identify the environmental factors that shape these distributions, and to determine the association of mosquito presence with key drivers of virus spillover, including mosquito and CHIKV abundance. We therefore modeled the distribution of seven CHIKV mosquito vectors over two sequential rainy seasons in Kédougou, Senegal using Maxent.MethodsMosquito data were collected in fifty sites distributed in five land cover classes across the study area. Environmental data representing land cover, topographic, and climatic factors were included in the models. Models were compared and evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) statistics. The correlation of model outputs with abundance of individual mosquito species as well as CHIKV-positive mosquito pools was tested.ResultsFourteen models were produced and evaluated; the environmental variables most strongly associated with mosquito distributions were distance to large patches of forest, landscape patch size, rainfall, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Seven models were positively correlated with mosquito abundance and one (Aedes taylori) was consistently, positively correlated with CHIKV-positive mosquito pools. Eight models predicted high relative occurrence rates of mosquitoes near the villages of Tenkoto and Ngary, the areas with the highest frequency of CHIKV-positive mosquito pools.ConclusionsOf the environmental factors considered here, landscape fragmentation and configuration had the strongest influence on mosquito distributions. Of the mosquito species modeled, the distribution of Ae. taylori correlated most strongly with abundance of CHIKV, suggesting that presence of this species will be a useful predictor of sylvatic CHIKV presence.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-2832-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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“…Entomological indices based on the adult form of the vector seem to be important tools for predicting the risk of dengue fever (Wijayanti et al, 2016). Attaway et al (2016) identified areas at risk of dengue occurrence in Africa. They state that many variables should be taken into account when spatial analysis techniques are employed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using adult Aedes aegypti females to predict areas at risk for dengue transmission: A spatial case-control study

et al. 2018

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Risk analysis for dengue suitability in Africa using the ArcGIS predictive analysis tools (PA tools)

Cited by 27 publications

References 31 publications

Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia

Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia

Ecological niche modeling of Aedes mosquito vectors of chikungunya virus in southeastern Senegal

Using adult Aedes aegypti females to predict areas at risk for dengue transmission: A spatial case-control study

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