Background
São José do Rio Preto is one of the cities of the state of São Paulo, Brazil, that is hyperendemic for dengue, with the presence of the four dengue serotypes.
Objectives: to calculate dengue seroprevalence in a neighbourhood of São José do Rio Preto and identify if socioeconomic and demographic covariates are associated with dengue seropositivity.
Methods
A cohort study to evaluate dengue seroprevalence and incidence and associated factors on people aged 10 years or older, was assembled in Vila Toninho neighbourhood, São José do Rio Preto. The participant enrolment occurred from October 2015 to March 2016 (the first wave of the cohort study), when blood samples were collected for serological test (ELISA IgG anti-DENV) and questionnaires were administrated on socio-demographic variables. We evaluated the data collected in this first wave using a cross-sectional design. We considered seropositive the participants that were positive in the serological test (seronegative otherwise). We modelled the seroprevalence with a logistic regression in a geostatistical approach. The Bayesian inference was made using integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) coupled with the Stochastic Partial Differential Equation method (SPDE).
Results
We found 986 seropositive individuals for DENV in 1322 individuals surveyed in the study area in the first wave of the cohort study, corresponding to a seroprevalence of 74.6% (95%CI: 72.2–76.9). Between the population that said never had dengue fever, 68.4% (566/828) were dengue seropositive. Older people, non-white and living in a house (instead of in an apartment), were positively associated with dengue seropositivity. We adjusted for the other socioeconomic and demographic covariates, and accounted for residual spatial dependence between observations, which was found to present up to 800 m.
Conclusions
Only one in four people aged 10 years or older did not have contact with any of the serotypes of dengue virus in Vila Toninho neighbourhood in São José do Rio Preto. Age, race and type of house were associated with the occurrence of the disease. The use of INLA in a geostatistical approach in a Bayesian context allowed us to take into account the spatial dependence between the observations and identify the associated covariates to dengue seroprevalence.
Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4074-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Spatial analysis techniques and the number of adult Ae. aegypti females were used to produce an indicator of dengue risk. The index can be applied at various levels of spatial aggregation for an entire study area, as well as for sub-areas, such as city blocks. Even though the index is adequate to predict dengue risk, it should be tested and validated in various scenarios before routine use.
O objetivo foi identificar, no contexto da atuação dos agentes responsáveis pelo controle do dengue e na sua relação com moradores, situações vivenciadas no dia-a-dia de suas funções. Realizou-se estudo transversal com aplicação de questionários à população dos agentes de controle de vetores (ACV), à dos agentes comunitários de saúde (ACS) e a uma amostra de mulheres. As respostas dadas pelos agentes foram agrupadas nos âmbitos do trabalho, particular e coletivo. As mulheres foram abordadas sobre a relação mantida com os agentes. As dificuldades citadas nos âmbitos particular e trabalho pelos ACV diferiram das citadas pelos ACS. No coletivo foram coincidentes e mostraram que ambos não estão preparados para lidar com estas questões. Das mulheres entrevistadas, 87,0% afirmaram estar bem ou muito bem informadas sobre dengue, 84,0% afirmaram que os trabalhos dos agentes ajudam sempre e 54,0% apontaram como dificuldade o horário impróprio da visita realizada pelo agente. Identificou-se a necessidade de um novo profissional que reconheça e respeite as particularidades dos locais onde atua e desenvolva suas atividades de forma integrada às questões sócio-ambientais da comunidade.
The aims of this study were to describe the occurrence of dengue in space and time and to assess the relationships between dengue incidence and entomologic indicators. We selected the dengue autochthonous cases that occurred between September 2005 and August 2007 in São José do Rio Preto to calculate incidence rates by month, year and census tracts. The monthly incidence rates of the city were compared to the monthly Breteau indices (BI) of the São José do Rio Region. Between December 2006 and February 2007, an entomological survey was conducted to collect immature forms of Aedes aegypti in Jaguaré, a São José do Rio Preto neighborhood, and to obtain entomological indices. These indices were represented using statistical interpolation. To represent the occurrence of dengue in the Jaguaré neighborhood in 2006 and 2007, we used the Kernel ratio and to evaluate the relationship between dengue and the entomological indices, we used a generalized additive model in a spatial case-control design. Between September 2005 and August 2007, the occurrence of dengue in São José do Rio Preto was almost entirely caused by DENV3, and the monthly incidence rates presented high correlation coefficients with the monthly BI. In Jaguaré neighborhood, the entomological indices calculated by hectare were better predictors of the spatial distribution of dengue than the indices calculated by properties, but the pupae quantification did not show better prediction qualities than the indices based on the container positivity, in relation to the risk of dengue occurrence. The fact that the municipality's population had a high susceptibility to the serotype DENV3 before the development of this research, along with the almost total predominance of the occurrence of this serotype between 2005 and 2007, facilitated the analysis of the epidemiological situation of the disease and allowed us to connect it to the entomological indicators.
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