Risk Analysis for Biological Hazards: What We Need to Know about Invasive Species

Abstract

Risk analysis for biological invasions is similar to other types of natural and human hazards. For example, risk analysis for chemical spills requires the evaluation of basic information on where a spill occurs; exposure level and toxicity of the chemical agent; knowledge of the physical processes involved in its rate and direction of spread; and potential impacts to the environment, economy, and human health relative to containment costs. Unlike typical chemical spills, biological invasions can have long lag times from introduction and establishment to successful invasion, they reproduce, and they can spread rapidly by physical and biological processes. We use a risk analysis framework to suggest a general strategy for risk analysis for invasive species and invaded habitats. It requires: (1) problem formation (scoping the problem, defining assessment endpoints); (2) analysis (information on species traits, matching species traits to suitable habitats, estimating exposure, surveys of current distribution and abundance); (3) risk characterization (understanding of data completeness, estimates of the "potential" distribution and abundance; estimates of the potential rate of spread; and probable risks, impacts, and costs); and (4) risk management (containment potential, costs, and opportunity costs; legal mandates and social considerations and information science and technology needs).

Corruption, development and governance indicators predict invasive species risk from trade

“…Our approach represents a novel consideration when assessing exotic species' risk associated with trade, which has historically focused on biological or ecological characteristics of individual taxa (e.g. [31,32]). Our approach presented here is novel and the results will substantially inform risk assessment.…”

Relative risk of invasive ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) establishing in New Zealand

“…This poses a major challenge to border security agencies (Maynard et al 2004). There are limited resources available to respond to every incursion so priority setting is necessary, using some form of risk assessment (Ruesink et al 1995;Kolar & Lodge 2001;Stohlgren & Schnase 2006). An important component of assessing risk is determining the potential of a species to establish populations in the local climate (Stohlgren & Schnase 2006).…”

Weighing empirical and hypothetical evidence for assessing potential invasive species range limits: a review of the case of Burmese pythons in the USA

“…Bomford et al (2009) proposed that climate matching can be a valuable tool for assessing risk of establishment by alien herpetofauna, and many researchers have been exploring and evaluating attributes for assessing establishment risk (Bomford et al 2009;Hayes and Barry 2008;Stohlgren and Schnase 2006). As with all statistics and modeling, the data upon which a model is generated and the analytical methods used to produce the results determine the accuracy and utility of inferences (Engeman et al 2011).…”