Rising sea levels: Potential impacts and responses

Hester, R. E.; Harrison, Roy M.; Nicholls, Robert J.

doi:10.1039/9781847550972-00083

Cited by 31 publications

(20 citation statements)

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“…The direct effect of sea-level rise on coastal erosion is estimated using the Bruun Rule (Zhang et al 2004;Nicholls 2002). Sealevel rise also affects coastal erosion indirectly as tidal basins become sediment sinks under rising sea level, trapping sediments from the nearby open coast into tidal basins.…”

Section: The Diva Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA

Hinkel

Nicholls

Vafeidis

et al. 2010

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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144

102

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This paper applies the DIVA model to assess the risk of and adaptation to sealevel rise for the European Union in the 21st century under the A2 and B1 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For each scenario, impacts are estimated without and with adaptation in the form of increasing dike heights and nourishing beaches. Before 2050, the level of impacts is primarily determined by socio-economic development. In 2100 and assuming no adaptation, 780×10 3 people/year are estimated to be affected by coastal flooding under A2 and 200×10 3 people/year under B1. The total monetary damage caused by flooding, salinity intrusion, land erosion and migration is projected to be about US$ 17×10 9 under both scenarios in 2100; damage costs relative to GDP are highest for the Netherlands (0.3% of GDP under A2). Adaptation reduces the number of people flooded by factors of 110 to 288 and total damage costs by factors of 7 to 9. In 2100 adaptation costs are projected to be US$ 3.5×10 9 under A2 and 2.6×10 9 under B1; adaptation costs relative to GDP are highest for Estonia (0.16% under A2) and Ireland (0.05% under A2). These results suggest that adaptation measures to sea-level rise are beneficial and affordable, and will be widely applied throughout the European Union.

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Section: The Diva Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA

Hinkel

Nicholls

Vafeidis

et al. 2010

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

Self Cite

144

102

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Some regions will be particularly vulnerable to even low levels of climate change in part because they are extremely poor and have less capacity to adapt to change in general (Downing et al, 2001). Thus, differences in vulnerability may result from geo-physical factors, such as heavily populated low-lying coastal areas in a region (Nicholls, 2002(Nicholls, , 2003 or from socio-economic factors, such as poverty levels and inadequate capacity to cope with change (Downing et al, 2001;Yohe and Tol, 2002). Climate and economic conditions may be even expected to improve in some regions at lower levels of temperature change, such as in the northern hemisphere, while an identical global mean temperature change may cause significant damages in tropical regions Tol, 2002;Nordhaus and Boyer, 2000).…”

Section: Relating Damage To Changes In Temperature/climatementioning

confidence: 98%

Climate change: long-term targets and short-term commitments

Corfee-Morlot

Höhne

2003

Global Environmental Change

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“…agriculture: Downing et al, 2000;Abler and Shortle, 2000;water: Arnell, 1998;Miles et al, 2000;biodiversity: Sykes and Haxeltine, 1998;Leemans, 1999;and coastal zones: Nicholls and Mimura, 1998;Nicholls, 2002a). These have generally involved the development, and application, of impact models to scenarios of climate change, to understand the sensitivity of specific sectors to variations in climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

A Regional, Multi-Sectoral And Integrated Assessment Of The Impacts Of Climate And Socio-Economic Change In The Uk

et al. 2005

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Policy makers and stakeholders are increasingly demanding impact assessments which produce policy-relevant guidance on the local impacts of global climate change. The 'Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England' (RegIS) study developed a methodology for stakeholder-led, regional climate change impact assessment that explicitly evaluated local and regional (sub-national) scale impacts and adaptation options, and crosssectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coasts and floodplains and water resources). The 'Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response' (DPSIR) approach provided a structure for linking the modelling and scenario techniques. A 5 × 5 km grid was chosen for numerical modelling input (climate and socio-economic scenarios) and output, as a compromise between the climate scenario resolution (10 × 10 km) and the detailed spatial resolution output desired by stakeholders. Fundamental methodological issues have been raised by RegIS which reflect the difficulty of multi-sectoral modelling studies at local scales. In particular, the role of scenarios, error propagation in linked models, model validity, transparency and transportability as well as the use of integrated assessment to evaluate adaptation options to climate change are examined. Integrated assessments will provide new insights which will compliment those derived by more detailed sectoral assessments.

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Rising sea levels: Potential impacts and responses

Cited by 31 publications

References 0 publications

Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA

Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA

Climate change: long-term targets and short-term commitments

A Regional, Multi-Sectoral And Integrated Assessment Of The Impacts Of Climate And Socio-Economic Change In The Uk

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