Rising Mercury, Rising Hostility

Abstract

Recent social scientific research has examined connections between public opinion and weather conditions. This article contributes to this literature by analyzing the relationship between high temperature and survey response. Because hot temperatures are associated with aggression, irritation, and negativity, such conditions should lead to the expression of aggression, irritation, and negativity in survey response. This relationship is tested in a likely realm: feelings about policies relating to racial minorities. Data are drawn from the National Climatic Data Center and the 2010 Cooperative Congressional Election Study. Logistic regressions demonstrate that even after controlling for demographic and geographic factors, average daily temperatures above 74 F are associated with preferences for a stricter immigration policy as well as against permissive affirmative action policies. Acknowledging the role of this contextual variable reduces nonrandom error in estimates of public opinion on these issues.

Disorganized Political Violence: A Demonstration Case of Temperature and Insurgency

“…36.Key contributions to this expansive literature include Anderson 2001; Bruederle, Peters, and Roberts 2017; Cohen and Krueger 2016; DeWall and Bushman 2009; Dodge and Lentzner 1980; Gamble and Hess 2012; Gockel, Kolb, and Werth 2014; Kenrick and MacFarlane 1986; Reifman, Larrick, and Fein 1991; Rotton and Cohn 2001; Tiihonen et al 2017; Vrij, Van Der Steen, and Koppelaar 1994; Younan et al 2018.…”