Rising longevity, education, savings, and growth

Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Junsen; Lee, Ronald

doi:10.1016/s0304-3878(02)00088-3

Cited by 136 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…While a growing body of literature on the relationship between pensions, fertility, longevity and economic growth has been developed in the last decades (see, amongst many others, Zhang et al, 2001Zhang et al, , 2003Pecchenino and Pollard, 2005), less attention has been paid to the dynamical effects of public PAYG pensions in an economy with overlapping generations (OLG) and endogenous fertility.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fertility-related pensions and cyclical instability

Fanti

Gori

2013

J Popul Econ

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We show that the introduction of unfunded public pensions in a Cobb-Douglas economy with overlapping generations and endogenous fertility may cause complex economic cycles when individuals are short-sighted. In particular, the risk of cyclical instability increases with both the individual degree of thriftiness and the relative weight of individual fertility in the pension system. Our results provide a possible explanation of the occurrence of persistent cycles in an overlapping generations context and represent a policy warning about the dramatic destabilising effects of a fertility-related pension reform.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fertility-related pensions and cyclical instability

Fanti

Gori

2013

J Popul Econ

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“…also have systematically different effects on other important variables such as growth rate of output per capita (e.g., Boucekkine et al [6], Zhang et al [25]), the analysis in this article leads us to believe that the use of the Volterra derivative will be helpful in other economic-demographic studies in the future. Moreover, the above properties imply that at least one local extremum must exist between (0  * ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 84%

“…16 Note that assumption (24) implies that the individual is in debt at young ages. It is easy to see that either a constant or exponential wage profile satisfies the monotonicity (of growth rate) assumption (25). An empirically more relevant hump-shaped wage profile (where  00 () ≤ 0 in the relevant region with a strictly negative value for some ) also satisfies (25)…”

Section: When Interest and Discount Rates Are Equalmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…According to the proof of Proposition 3, given in Appendix C, if the initial level of wage income,  (0), is sufficiently low such that (24) holds, then there exists an interval within which a mortality decline at a particular age will lead to earlier retirement. Moreover, if the wage profile is such that the initial wage level satisfies (24) and its growth rate satisfies the monotonicity properties (25), then there exists a threshold age   after which the years-to-consume effect dominates the lifetime human wealth effect. 16 As a result, a mortality decline after the threshold age leads to a higher optimal retirement age.…”

Section: Crra Utility Functionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mortality transition and differential incentives for early retirement

Lau

Sánchez-Romero

2012

Journal of Economic Theory

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Many studies specify human mortality patterns parametrically, with a parameter change affecting mortality rates at different ages simultaneously. Motivated by the stylized fact that a mortality decline affects primarily younger people in the early phase of mortality transition but mainly older people in the later phase, we study how a mortality change at an arbitrary age affects optimal retirement age. Using the Volterra derivative for a functional, we show that mortality reductions at older ages delay retirement unambiguously, but that mortality reductions at younger ages may lead to earlier retirement due to a substantial increase in the individual's expected lifetime human wealth.JEL Classification Numbers: D91; J11; J26 Keywords: mortality decline; incentive for early retirement; yearsto-consume effect; lifetime human wealth effect * We are grateful to Robert Canwell, Malene Kallestrup-Lamb, Takuma Kunieda, Alexander Ludwig, Vai-Lam Mui, Jim Vere, participants of various seminars/conferences, an Associate Editor and three referees for helpful comments and suggestions, and to Zhipeng Cai and Zhuojiong Gan for efficient research assistance. Hippolyte d'Albis, S.

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“…While a growing body of economic literature dealing with the relationship between pensions, fertility, longevity and economic growth has been developed in the last decades (see, amongst many others, Zhang et al, 2001Zhang et al, , 2003van Groezen et al 2003;Pecchenino and Pollard, 2005), less attention has been paid to the dynamical effects of the PAYG systems in the overlapping generations (OLG) context.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

PAYG Pensions and Economic Cycles

Fanti

Gori

2011

Public Finance Review

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This article analyses the dynamics of an overlapping generations economy (Diamond, 1965) with pay-as-you-go financed public pensions and myopic expectations. It isshown that large PAYG pensions may trigger economic fluctuations depending on the mutual relationship between technology and preference parameters. Our findings constitute a policy warning about the size of social security and provide another explanation of the occurrence of persistent cycles.

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Rising longevity, education, savings, and growth

Cited by 136 publications

References 22 publications

Fertility-related pensions and cyclical instability

Fertility-related pensions and cyclical instability

Mortality transition and differential incentives for early retirement

PAYG Pensions and Economic Cycles

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