Risikoanalyse

Cottin, Claudia; Döhler, Sebastian

doi:10.1007/978-3-658-00830-7

Cited by 31 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 16 publications

(24 reference statements)

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“…There are various techniques for the risk assessment of enterprises in the chemical industry [8,[30][31][32]60,63,64]. In the USA and Germany, risk identification is carried out for both personnel and equipment and performed using the standard techniques of hazard and operability (HAZOP), Fehlermöglichkeits und Einflussanalyse (FMEA), what-if analyses, and checklists [65][66][67].…”

Section: Prevention Of Accidents Approaches and Topicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Critical Situations and Prevention of Accidents in Chemico-Technological Systems (Methodological Aspects)

Fedorov,

Yablonsky

2024

Processes

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The aim of this work is to study the causes of accidents in chemical processes, develop a methodology for accident prevention via control, and illustrat its realization by examples using a variety of strategies. The general concept of critical situations was introduced systematically covering both emergency and pre-emergency situations. In large-scale chemical plants, examples of accidents are presented. Accident causes as a result of disturbances and control faults in technological processes are analyzed. Approaches for preventing accidents are considered. The revealing of critical situations is presented as a problem of pattern recognition, and the subtasks of the recognition are analyzed. An emergency scale based on the assessment of various states of the chemico-technological process is introduced and applied for distinguishing the different levels of accident. The real obstacles in the prevention of accidents via control are shown and analyzed. Matrices of critical situations with corresponding characteristics are given. The main tasks for the prevention and elimination of critical situations are highlighted and characterized, and our methodology for the realization of these tasks is presented. Practical examples of the prevention of accidents in the industrial ammonia synthesis processes (including approaches and strategies) are demonstrated based on the real-time control of autothermal reactors.

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Section: Prevention Of Accidents Approaches and Topicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Critical Situations and Prevention of Accidents in Chemico-Technological Systems (Methodological Aspects)

Fedorov,

Yablonsky

2024

Processes

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“…object i (the value at risk affected by scenario j ), and v i,j is the vulnerability of object i in dependence on scenario j . With respect to mountain hazard risk assessment, standardized approaches are available, such as IUGS (1997), Dai et al (2002), Bell and Glade (2004), and Fell et al (2008a, b) for landslides; Bründl et al (2010) for snow avalanches; and Bründl (2009) or ASTRA (2012) for a multi-hazard environment. These approaches, however, usually neglect the inherent uncertainties of involved variables.…”

Section: Deterministic Risk Conceptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-hazard risk assessment for roads: probabilistic versus deterministic approaches

Oberndorfer

Sander

Fuchs

2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Mountain hazard risk analysis for transport infrastructure is regularly based on deterministic approaches. Standard risk assessment approaches for roads need a variety of variables and data for risk computation, however without considering potential uncertainty in the input data. Consequently, input data needed for risk assessment are normally processed as discrete mean values without scatter or as an individual deterministic value from expert judgement if no statistical data are available. To overcome this gap, we used a probabilistic approach to analyse the effect of input data uncertainty on the results, taking a mountain road in the Eastern European Alps as a case study. The uncertainty of the input data are expressed with potential bandwidths using two different distribution functions. The risk assessment included risk for persons, property risk and risk for non-operational availability exposed to a multi-hazard environment (torrent processes, snow avalanches and rockfall). The study focuses on the epistemic uncertainty of the risk terms (exposure situations, vulnerability factors and monetary values), ignoring potential sources of variation in the hazard analysis. As a result, reliable quantiles of the calculated probability density distributions attributed to the aggregated road risk due to the impact of multiple mountain hazards were compared to the deterministic outcome from the standard guidelines on road safety. The results based on our case study demonstrate that with common deterministic approaches risk might be underestimated in comparison to a probabilistic risk modelling setup, mainly due to epistemic uncertainties of the input data. The study provides added value to further develop standardized road safety guidelines and may therefore be of particular importance for road authorities and political decision-makers.

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“…Whereas lower and upper bounds define on both edges the limited bandwidth, the most likely value indicates that values in the middle are more probable than the boundary values, and also allows for the representation of skewness. The TPD is a popular distribution in the risk analysis field (Cottin and Döhler, 2013) for example to reproduce expert estimates. Especially if little or no information about the actual distribution of the parameter or only an estimate of the additional variables to fit the theoretical distribution is feasible, a best possible approximation can be achieved using the TPD.…”

Section: Triangular Distribution (Tpd)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-hazard risk assessment for roads: Probabilistic versus deterministic approaches

Oberndorfer

Sander

Fuchs

2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Mountain hazard risk analysis for transport infrastructure is regularly based on deterministic approaches. Due to a variety of variables and data needed for risk computation, a considerable degree of epistemic uncertainty results. Consequently, input data needed for risk assessment is normally processed as mean values with or without scatter, or as an individual deterministic value from expert judgement if no statistical data is available. To overcome this gap, we used a probabilistic approach to express the potential bandwidth of input data with two different distribution functions, taking a mountain road in the Eastern European Alps as case study. The risk assessment included the damage potential of road infrastructure and traffic exposed to a multi-hazard environment (torrent processes, snow avalanches, rock fall). Reliable quantiles of the calculated probability density distributions attributed to the aggregated road risk due to the impact of multiple-mountain hazards were compared to the deterministic results from the standard guidelines on road safety. The results clearly show that with common deterministic approaches risk is significantly underestimated in comparison to a probabilistic risk modelling setup, mainly due to epistemic uncertainties of the input data. The study provides added value to further develop standardized road safety guidelines and may therefore be of particular importance for road authorities and political decision-makers.

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Risikoanalyse

Cited by 31 publications

References 16 publications

Critical Situations and Prevention of Accidents in Chemico-Technological Systems (Methodological Aspects)

Critical Situations and Prevention of Accidents in Chemico-Technological Systems (Methodological Aspects)

Multi-hazard risk assessment for roads: probabilistic versus deterministic approaches

Multi-hazard risk assessment for roads: Probabilistic versus deterministic approaches

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