Riots and subways, a relationship moderated by the neighborhood’s income level

Abstract

Social disturbances due to socioeconomic and political factors received media attention during 2019 in places like France, Hong Kong, Chile, Nigeria, Sudan, Haiti, and Lebanon. In October 2019, Chile saw massive demonstrations in the capital city of Santiago. The cost of damage to infrastructure during the first month of unrest was estimated at US$ 4.6 billion, and the cost to the Chilean economy was about US$ 3 billion, 1.1% of its Gross Domestic Product. This study analyzes how the topology of the public transport network affected the locations of the 2019 riots in Santiago. On average, we find a clear association between proximity to the subway network and riot density. This association is significant only in neighborhoods with residents in the highest and lowest income quartiles. As a result, when analyzing social unrest and the critical role of public transport, policymakers should also consider the crucial role of income.

Dynamical modelling of street protests using the Yellow Vest Movement and Khabarovsk as case studies

“…We mention here that, if considered in a broader context, this is not the only possible pattern, as there are other cases where the protests intensity curve shows a qualitatively different behaviour, e.g. the number of protesters oscillating with time 6 , 57 . However, arguably, the apparent similarity between the dynamics of the YVM and Khabarovsk protests suggests a certain generality of the underlying mechanism(s) regardless the significant difference between the social, cultural and political environment in France and Russia.…”

“…Over the last decade, it has been attracting a growing attention 6 , 16 , 31 , 38 motivated by events such as London riots 2011, the Arab Spring, the Yellow Vest Movement, Extinction Rebellion, and others. Mathematical modelling has been shown to be an efficient tool to reveal typical patterns in the protests dynamics and identify factors and processes that affect the intensity and duration of the unrest 10 , 24 , 25 , 57 .…”