Dynamical modelling of street protests using the Yellow Vest Movement and Khabarovsk as case studies

Alsulami, Amer; Glukhov, A. N.; Shishlenin, Maxim A.; Petrovskii, Sergei

doi:10.1038/s41598-022-23917-z

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 51 publications

(102 reference statements)

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“…However, social protests, especially mass street protests, are not always peaceful. In fact, they often involve some forms of civil disorder and, at times, violence, leading to disruptions in everyday life (Alsulami et al, 2022).…”

Section: Street Protestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Demand for Freedom and Equality in the Street Below the Movement of Woman, Life, Freedom (August 2022)

Zarbighalehhammami,

Abbasi

2023

J. Adv. Res. Soc. Sci.

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This research, which explores the role of street protests in the freedom and equality movement of the 2022 urban uprising, was conducted using a secondary analysis approach and references to related sources, documents and theories. What drove people to the streets at the time was the protest against the death of Mrs. Mahsa Amini, which triggered massive protests in many parts of the country. It is clear that the initial public links to economic, social, political and governing conditions are formed on the pavement. People's movements that take the form of common goals such as freedom and reform demands are the main drivers of street protests. In the protests of 2022, social constraints such as forced veiling and guidance of monitoring mechanisms were also the source of dissatisfaction, which formed a circle of protesters in the streets that quickly expanded to broader issues of economic and political concerns. Despite the fact that this movement was formed with a central slogan of "social inequality", with emphasis on lifestyle and against forced veiling, and continued to exist, probably with the smallest stimulus it will be resumed and this time the central slogan of protests will be "nothing" and thus will provide the necessary incentives for the presence of wider segments of people, especially the youth.

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Section: Street Protestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Demand for Freedom and Equality in the Street Below the Movement of Woman, Life, Freedom (August 2022)

Zarbighalehhammami,

Abbasi

2023

J. Adv. Res. Soc. Sci.

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“…A distinct avenue of inquiry ventured into the use of non-linear dynamics and chaos theory, as showcased in [ 8 ], wherein the Russian Empire’s labor strikes during the period spanning 1895 to 1905 were subjected to rigorous analysis. Other pertinent dynamical approaches can be found in [ 9 , 10 ]. Meanwhile, evolutionary game theory has found application in the works [ 11 , 12 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The statistical and dynamic modeling of the first part of the 2013-2014 Euromaidan protests in Ukraine: The Revolution of Dignity and preceding times

Bahid,

Kutsenko,

Rodríguez

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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Ukraine’s tug-of-war between Russia and the West has had significant and lasting consequences for the country. In 2013, Viktor Yanukovych, the Ukrainian president aligned with Russia, opted against signing an association agreement with the European Union. This agreement aimed to facilitate trade and travel between the EU and Ukraine. This decision sparked widespread protests that coalesced in Kyiv’s Maidan Square, eventually becoming known as the Euromaidan protests. In this study, we analyze the protest data from 2013, sourced from Ukraine’s Center for Social and Labor Research. Despite the dataset’s limitations and occasional inconsistencies, we demonstrate the extraction of valuable insights and the construction of a descriptive model from such data. Our investigation reveals a pre-existing state of self-excitation within the system even before the onset of the Euromaidan protests. This self-excitation intensified during the Euromaidan protests. A statistical analysis indicates that the government’s utilization of force correlates with increased future protests, exacerbating rather than quelling the protest movement. Furthermore, we introduce the implementation of Hawkes process models to comprehend the spatiotemporal dynamics of the protest activity. Our findings highlight that, while protest activities spread across the entire country, the driving force behind the dynamics of these protests was the level of activity in Kyiv. Furthermore, in contrast to prior research that emphasized geographical proximity as a key predictor of event propagation, our study illustrates that the political alignment among oblasts, which are the distinct municipalities comprising Ukraine, had a more profound impact than mere geographic distance. This underscores the significance of social and cultural factors in molding the trajectory of political movements.

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Dynamical modelling of street protests using the Yellow Vest Movement and Khabarovsk as case studies

Cited by 2 publications

References 51 publications

The Demand for Freedom and Equality in the Street Below the Movement of Woman, Life, Freedom (August 2022)

The Demand for Freedom and Equality in the Street Below the Movement of Woman, Life, Freedom (August 2022)

The statistical and dynamic modeling of the first part of the 2013-2014 Euromaidan protests in Ukraine: The Revolution of Dignity and preceding times

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