Revolution, war and modernization: Population policy and fertility change in Iran

Abstract

Fertility trends in Iran over recent decades can be plausibly related to a number of causal factors. Population policy shifts were quite marked, and were related to political upheaval and war, which influenced both official policy and popular perceptions of the nation's need for children. A range of developmental factors were also important. The key fertility trends to be explained include the rise to an exceptionally high level in the early 1980s (a TFR of just below 7), and the speed of the subsequent decline to a TFR of about 2.7 in 1996. As well as estimating the proximate determinants of these trends, the paper sets them in their political and developmental context. Iran's fertility trends are then compared with those of Islamic countries of North Africa and West Asia to gain additional insights into possible causal factors. An adequate explanation of fertility change in Iran needs to draw on elements of a number of theories of fertility transition.The key periods of fertility change in Iran over the past three decades have been the onset of a modest decline, mainly in urban areas, in the early 1970s, a resurgence in fertility rates from 1977 to 1984, and the renewed onset of fertility decline since 1988 (Aghajanian and Mehryar 1999; Abbasi-Shavazi 2000b). These changes coincide rather neatly with three political periods: the later stages of the Shah's regime; the Islamic Revolution and the war against Iraq; and a subsequent period of renewed modernization and pragmatism. There appears, then, to be a relationship between the dramatic political events and fertility trends. The obvious linkage is the shifts in population policy that took place over the period: antinatalism and a governmentsponsored family planning program in the later stages of the Shah's regime; denunciation of family planning and encouragement of early marriage in the post-Revolutionary period; and a pragmatic return to antinatalism in the post-1988 period.Fertility has declined dramatically since the adoption of a new population policy in 1988. This rapid decline was greeted with incredulity for some time by many overseas observers. The reason was that much of the world was unaware that in the period following the Islamic Revolution, social change consisted not only of a

Ethnic differences in transition to first marriage in Iran

“…In Iran, women's educational attainment improved substantially as indicated by an increase in their literacy rate from 35.6% to 74.2% between 1976and 1996(Abbasi-Shavazi 2000. This educational improvement, however, did not translate to women's higher participation in the labour force; rather it declined from 12.9% to 9.1% during the same period (Abbasi-Shavazi et al 2002). Therefore, the negative association between educational attainment of Iranian women and their age at marriage (Kazemipour 2004;Mahmoudian 2005) is more likely to be related to the second scenario (a delay in transition to adulthood) rather than to the first (a rise in opportunity costs of marriage).…”

“…In Iran, urban population rose from 46.9% of the population in 1976 to 61.3% in 1996 (Amani 2001). Yet, rural residents have become more similar to those living in urban areas in terms of access to education, health, and modern amenities (Abbasi-Shavazi et al 2002). As a result, urban women on average have married only one year later than their rural counterparts during the past few decades (Iran Ministry of Health and Medical Education 2002).…”

A Significant Population Signal in Iranian Temperature Records

“…In a detailed study, Abbasi et al [18] described the temporal changes in Iran's population over the years which coincided with three different political periods. As a result of better health care and population policies, Iran experienced major population growth in the 1970s and 1980s, which was followed by a relative decline in the rate of population growth.…”

Flexibility and pragmatism in promoting health: an experience of synergy between health and religion in the Islamic Republic of Iran

“…Despite its extensive resource allocation and social marketing activities, however, the Shah's family planning programme effected relatively modest achievements [6]. Its predominant focus was the urban population, with women targeted as the major recipients of services even though traditional contraceptive methods (notably azl, or withdrawal) were male-oriented [7].…”

“…The Family Planning Council was dissolved and the family planning programme officially discontinued not long after the revolution in early 1979 [6]. Religious leaders emphasized marriage and family formation as essential Islamic virtues and the government was urged to adopt economic policies that would encourage early marriage.…”