Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and a proposition for small-scale insular grids

Diagne, Maïmouna; David, Mathieu; Lauret, Philippe; Boland, John; Schmutz, Nicolas

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2013.06.042

Cited by 655 publications

(452 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…In the review of solar irradiance models Diagne et al [46] discuss the accuracy, computational requirements for predicting solar irradiance at various time horizons along with hybrid models for the combination of both very short term and longer term predictive models.…”

Section: Models For Solar Irradiationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimisation of Storage for Concentrated Solar Power Plants

et al. 2014

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The proliferation of non-scheduled generation from renewable electrical energy sources such concentrated solar power (CSP) presents a need for enabling scheduled generation by incorporating energy storage; either via directly coupled Thermal Energy Storage (TES) or Electrical Storage Systems (ESS) distributed within the electrical network or grid. The challenges for 100% renewable energy generation are: to minimise capitalisation cost and to maximise energy dispatch capacity. The aims of this review article are twofold: to review storage technologies and to survey the most appropriate optimisation techniques to determine optimal operation and size of storage of a system to operate in the Australian National Energy Market (NEM). Storage technologies are reviewed to establish indicative characterisations of energy density, conversion efficiency, charge/discharge rates and costings. A partitioning of optimisation techniques based on methods most appropriate for various time scales is performed: from "whole of year", seasonal, monthly, weekly and daily averaging to those best suited matching the NEM bid timing of five minute dispatch bidding, averaged on the half hour as the trading settlement spot price. Finally, a selection of the most promising research directions and methods to determine the optimal operation and sizing of storage for renewables in the grid is presented.

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Section: Models For Solar Irradiationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimisation of Storage for Concentrated Solar Power Plants

et al. 2014

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“…There are also some studies focusing specifically on different topics related to insular areas and relevant power system operations. Diagne et al [11] introduced a review of solar forecasting methods specifically to aid insular power system operations. Brito et al [12] presented the details of an imaginary insular power system that was assumed as carbon free and also discussed the pros/cons of integrating sustainable energy resources and ways to overcome the possible drawbacks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overview of insular power systems under increasing penetration of renewable energy sources: Opportunities and challenges

Erdinç

Paterakis

Catalào

2015

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

116

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Insular electricity grids are considered to have a more fragile structure than the mainland ones due to several factors such as the lower inertia because of lower number of generation facilities connected to the system, absence or insufficient interconnection with the main grid, etc. The recent trend of integrating large portions of environmentally sustainable power generation units that have a significantly volatile nature in the generation mix (such as wind and solar energy conversion systems) within this fragile structure, poses profound challenges that need deeper and specific analysis. This study aims to provide an overview of insular power system structures and operational requirements, especially under increasing penetration of renewable energy sources. Firstly, a general evaluation of insular power systems is presented. Then, potential challenges are thoroughly discussed together with opportunities to tackle them. Future technological developments, as well as innovative applications are also given special attention. Hence, this paper contributes to the scarce literature regarding insular power systems by providing a critical overview of issues regarding their operation and possible solutions.

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“…Regarding solar energy forecasting, the first attempts made for predicting solar irradiance can be traced back to [10]. Comprehensive reviews of the status of forecasting solar irradiance on different time scales for energy generation are reported in [11,12], while different forecasting techniques to predict solar power output are evaluated and compared in [13,14]. In addition to these references, an interesting review of a wide range of forecasting tools as statistical and computational intelligence models, focused on electricity price forecasting, can be found in [15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The “Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies” Benchmarking Exercise on Short-Term Forecasting of Wind and Solar Power Generation

et al. 2015

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A benchmarking exercise was organized within the framework of the European Action Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies ("WIRE") with the purpose of evaluating the performance of state of the art models for short-term renewable energy forecasting. The exercise consisted in forecasting the power output of two wind farms and two photovoltaic power plants, in order to compare the merits of forecasts based on different modeling approaches and input data. It was thus possible to obtain a better knowledge of the state of the art in both wind and solar power forecasting, with an overview and comparison of the principal and the novel approaches that are used today in the field, and to assess the evolution of forecast performance with respect to previous benchmarking exercises. The outcome of this exercise consisted then in proposing new challenges in the renewable power forecasting field and identifying the main areas for improving accuracy in the future.

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Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and a proposition for small-scale insular grids

Cited by 655 publications

References 37 publications

Optimisation of Storage for Concentrated Solar Power Plants

Optimisation of Storage for Concentrated Solar Power Plants

Overview of insular power systems under increasing penetration of renewable energy sources: Opportunities and challenges

The “Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies” Benchmarking Exercise on Short-Term Forecasting of Wind and Solar Power Generation

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