Rethinking Climate, Climate Change, and Their Relationship With Water

Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0180.v1

Cited by 10 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 29 publications

(38 reference statements)

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“…To ‘ resolve ’ it, they ‘ explore a last avenue, that of using annual CO 2 emissions '. However, using anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, which contribute only a small portion (3.8%) to the global carbon cycle [30], as a principal variable is definitely less meaningful than using the atmospheric CO 2 concentration.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revisiting causality using stochastics: 2. Applications

et al. 2022

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In a companion paper, we develop the theoretical background of a stochastic approach to causality with the objective of formulating necessary conditions that are operationally useful in identifying or falsifying causality claims. Starting from the idea of stochastic causal systems, the approach extends it to the more general concept of hen-or-egg causality, which includes as special cases the classic causal, and the potentially causal and anti-causal systems. The framework developed is applicable to large-scale open systems, which are neither controllable nor repeatable. In this paper, we illustrate and showcase the proposed framework in a number of case studies. Some of them are controlled synthetic examples and are conducted as a proof of applicability of the theoretical concept, to test the methodology with a priori known system properties. Others are real-world studies on interesting scientific problems in geophysics, and in particular hydrology and climatology.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revisiting causality using stochastics: 2. Applications

et al. 2022

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A Global-Scale Investigation of Stochastic Similarities in Marginal Distribution and Dependence Structure of Key Hydrological-Cycle Processes

et al. 2021

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To seek stochastic analogies in key processes related to the hydrological cycle, an extended collection of several billions of records from hundred thousands of worldwide stations is used in this work. The examined processes are the near-surface hourly temperature, dew point, relative humidity, sea level pressure, and atmospheric wind speed, as well as the hourly/daily streamflow and precipitation. Through the use of robust stochastic metrics such as the K-moments and a second-order climacogram (i.e., variance of the averaged process vs. scale), it is found that several stochastic similarities exist in both the marginal structure, in terms of the first four moments, and in the second-order dependence structure. Stochastic similarities are also detected among the examined processes, forming a specific hierarchy among their marginal and dependence structures, similar to the one in the hydrological cycle. Finally, similarities are also traced to the isotropic and nearly Gaussian turbulence, as analyzed through extensive lab recordings of grid turbulence and of turbulent buoyant jet along the axis, which resembles the turbulent shear and buoyant regime that dominates and drives the hydrological-cycle processes in the boundary layer. The results are found to be consistent with other studies in literature such as solar radiation, ocean waves, and evaporation, and they can be also justified by the principle of maximum entropy. Therefore, they allow for the development of a universal stochastic view of the hydrological-cycle under the Hurst–Kolmogorov dynamics, with marginal structures extending from nearly Gaussian to Pareto-type tail behavior, and with dependence structures exhibiting roughness (fractal) behavior at small scales, long-term persistence at large scales, and a transient behavior at intermediate scales.

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LiG Metrology, Correlated Error, and the Integrity of the Global Surface Air-Temperature Record

Frank

2023

Sensors

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The published 95% uncertainty of the global surface air-temperature anomaly (GSATA) record through 1980 is impossibly less than the 2σ = ±0.25 °C lower limit of laboratory resolution of 1 °C/division liquid-in-glass (LiG) thermometers. The ~0.7 °C/century Joule-drift of lead- and soft-glass thermometer bulbs renders unreliable the entire historical air-temperature record through the 19th century. A circa 1900 Baudin meteorological spirit thermometer bulb exhibited intense Pb X-ray emission lines (10.55, 12.66, and 14.76 keV). Uncorrected LiG thermometer non-linearity leaves 1σ = ±0.27 °C uncertainty in land-surface air temperatures prior to 1981. The 2σ = ±0.43 °C from LiG resolution and non-linearity obscures most of the 20th century GSATA trend. Systematic sensor-measurement errors are highly pair-wise correlated, possibly across hundreds of km. Non-normal distributions of bucket and engine-intake difference SSTs disconfirm the assumption of random measurement error. Semivariogram analysis of ship SST measurements yields half the error difference mean, ±½Δε1,2, not the error mean. Transfer-function adjustment following a change of land station air-temperature sensor eliminates measurement independence and forward-propagates the antecedent uncertainty. LiG resolution limits, non-linearity, and sensor field calibrations yield GSATA mean ±2σ RMS uncertainties of, 1900–1945, ±1.7 °C; 1946–1980, ±2.1 °C; 1981–2004, ±2.0 °C; and 2005–2010, ±1.6 °C. Finally, the 20th century (1900–1999) GSATA, 0.74 ± 1.94 °C, does not convey any information about rate or magnitude of temperature change.

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Rethinking Climate, Climate Change, and Their Relationship With Water

Cited by 10 publications

References 29 publications

Revisiting causality using stochastics: 2. Applications

Revisiting causality using stochastics: 2. Applications

A Global-Scale Investigation of Stochastic Similarities in Marginal Distribution and Dependence Structure of Key Hydrological-Cycle Processes

LiG Metrology, Correlated Error, and the Integrity of the Global Surface Air-Temperature Record

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