[1] Precipitation downscaling improves the coarse resolution and poor representation of precipitation in global climate models and helps end users to assess the likely hydrological impacts of climate change. This paper integrates perspectives from meteorologists, climatologists, statisticians, and hydrologists to identify generic end user (in particular, impact modeler) needs and to discuss downscaling capabilities and gaps. End users need a reliable representation of precipitation intensities and temporal and spatial variability, as well as physical consistency, independent of region and season. In addition to presenting dynamical downscaling, we review perfect prognosis statistical downscaling, model output statistics, and weather generators, focusing on recent developments to improve the representation of spacetime variability. Furthermore, evaluation techniques to assess downscaling skill are presented. Downscaling adds considerable value to projections from global climate models. Remaining gaps are uncertainties arising from sparse data; representation of extreme summer precipitation, subdaily precipitation, and full precipitation fields on fine scales; capturing changes in small-scale processes and their feedback on large scales; and errors inherited from the driving global climate model.

International audienceUrban catchments are typically characterised by high spatial variability and fast runoff processes resulting in short response times. Hydrological analysis of such catchments requires high resolution precipitation and catchment information to properly represent catchment response. This study investigated the impact of rainfall input resolution on the outputs of detailed hydrodynamic models of seven urban catchments in North-West Europe. The aim was to identify critical rainfall resolutions for urban catchments to properly characterise catchment response. Nine storm events measured by a dual-polarimetric X-band weather radar, located in the Cabauw Experimental Site for Atmospheric Research (CESAR) of the Netherlands, were selected for analysis. Based on the original radar estimates, at 100m and 1min resolutions, 15 different combinations of coarser spatial and temporal resolutions, up to 3000m and 10min, were generated. These estimates were then applied to the operational semi-distributed hydrodynamic models of the urban catchments, all of which have similar size (between 3 and 8km2), but different morphological, hydrological and hydraulic characteristics. When doing so, methodologies for standardising model outputs and making results comparable were implemented. Results were analysed in the light of storm and catchment characteristics. Three main features were observed in the results: (1) the impact of rainfall input resolution decreases rapidly as catchment drainage area increases; (2) in general, variations in temporal resolution of rainfall inputs affect hydrodynamic modelling results more strongly than variations in spatial resolution; (3) there is a strong interaction between the spatial and temporal resolution of rainfall input estimates. Based upon these results, methods to quantify the impact of rainfall input resolution as a function of catchment size and spatial-temporal characteristics of storms are proposed and discussed. © 2015 The Authors

Over a decade ago, point rainfall models based upon Poisson cluster processes were developed by Rodriguez-Iturbe, Cox and Isham. Two types of point process models were envisaged: the Bartlett±Lewis and the Neyman±Scott rectangular pulse models. Recent developments are reviewed here, including a number of empirical studies. The parameter estimation problem is addressed for both types of Poisson-cluster based models. The multiplicity of parameters which can be obtained for a given data set using the method of moments is illustrated and two approaches to ®nding a best set of parameters are presented. The use of a proper ®tting method will allow for the problems encountered in regionalisation to be adequately dealt with. Applications of the point process model to¯ood design are discussed and ®nally, results for a model with dependent cell depth and duration are given. Taking into account the spatial features of rainfall, three multi-site models are presented and compared. They are all governed by a master Poisson process of storm origins and have a number of cell origins associated with each storm origin. The three models differ as to the type of dependence structure between the cell characteristics at different sites. Analytical properties are presented for these models and their ability to represent the spatial structure of a set of raingauge data in the South-West of England is examined. Continuous spatial-temporal models are currently being developed and results are presented for a model in which storm centres arrive in a homogeneous Poisson process in

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Some recent developments in the stochastic modelling of single site and spatial rainfall are summarised. Alternative single site models based on Poisson cluster processes are introduced, fitting methods are discussed, and performance is compared for representative UK hourly data. The representation of sub-hourly rainfall is discussed, and results from a temporal disaggregation scheme are presented. Extension of the Poisson process methods to spatial-temporal rainfall, using radar data, is reported. Current methods assume spatial and temporal stationarity; work in progress seeks to relax these restrictions. Unlike radar data, long sequences of daily raingauge data are commonly available, and the use of generalized linear models (GLMs) (which can represent both temporal and spatial non-stationarity) to represent the spatial structure of daily rainfall based on raingauge data is illustrated for a network in the North of England. For flood simulation, disaggregation of daily rainfall is required. A relatively simple methodology is described, in which a single site Poisson process model provides hourly sequences, conditioned on the observed or GLM-simulated daily data. As a first step, complete spatial dependence is assumed. Results from the River Lee catchment, near London, are promising. A relatively comprehensive set of methodologies is thus provided for hydrological application.

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 precipitation estimates are widely used in tropical regions for hydrometeorological research. Recently, version 7 of the product was released. Major revisions to the algorithm involve the radar reflectivity-rainfall rate relationship, surface clutter detection over high terrain, a new reference database for the passive microwave algorithm, and a higher-quality gauge analysis product for monthly bias correction. To assess the impacts of the improved algorithm, the authors compare the version 7 and the older version 6 products with data from 263 rain gauges in and around the northern Peruvian Andes. The region covers humid tropical rain forest, tropical mountains, and arid-to-humid coastal plains. The authors find that the version 7 product has a significantly lower bias and an improved representation of the rainfall distribution. They further evaluated the performance of the version 6 and 7 products as forcing data for hydrological modeling by comparing the simulated and observed daily streamflow in nine nested Amazon River basins. The authors find that the improvement in the precipitation estimation algorithm translates to an increase in the model Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and a reduction in the relative bias between the observed and simulated flows by 30%-95%.

A conceptual stochastic model of rainfall is proposed in which storm origins occur in a Poisson process, where each storm has a random lifetime during which rain cell origins occur in a secondary Poisson process. In addition, each cell has a random lifetime during which instantaneous random depths (or ‘pulses’) of rain occur in a further Poisson process. A key motivation behind the model formulation is to account for the variability in rainfall data over small (e.g. 5 min) and larger time intervals. Time-series properties are derived to enable the model to be fitted to aggregated rain gauge data. These properties include moments up to third order, the probability that an interval is dry, and the autocovariance function. To allow for distinct storm types (e.g. convective and stratiform), several processes may be superposed. Using the derived properties, a model consisting of two storm types is fitted to 60 years of 5 min rainfall data taken from a site near Wellington, New Zealand, using sample estimates taken at 5 min, 1 hour, 6 hours and daily levels of aggregation. The model is found to fit moments of the depth distribution up to third order very well at these time scales. Using the fitted model, 5 min series are simulated, and annual maxima are extracted and compared with equivalent values taken from the historical record. A good fit in the extremes is found at both 1 and 24 hour levels of aggregation, although at the 5 min level there is some underestimation of the historical values. Proportions of time intervals with depths below various low thresholds are extracted from the simulated and historical series and compared. A tendency for underestimation of the historical values is evident at some time scales, with a close fit being obtained as the threshold is increased.