Responsiveness of Crop Yield and Acreage to Prices and Climate

Miao, Ruiqing; Khanna, Madhu; Huang, Haixiao

doi:10.1093/ajae/aav025

Cited by 148 publications

(203 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…The highest yield reductions, 25 % for corn and 19 % for switchgrass, were simulated in response to the high emission RCP8.5 pathway at the end of the century. Lower percentage crop yield reductions were found in this study compared to similar previous research results (e.g., Miao et al, 2015;Ummenhofer et al, 2015;Cai et al, 2009;Schlenker and Roberts, 2008). One possible reason that lower reductions in crop yields were predicted within this study could be the inclusion of CO 2 concentrations during the simulations, and the capability of SWAT to account for positive effects of CO 2 concentration on crop yield.…”

Section: Crop Yieldssupporting

confidence: 72%

Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

Dagnew

Gassman

Schoof

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists that describes the combined impacts of agricultural land use change and climate change on future bioenergy crop yields and watershed hydrology. In this study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) ecohydrological model was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural land use change scenarios and three downscaled climate pathways (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) that were created from an ensemble of eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). These scenarios were implemented in a wellcalibrated SWAT model for the intensively farmed and tiled Raccoon River watershed (RRW) located in western Iowa. The scenarios were executed for the historical baseline, early century, mid-century and late century periods. The results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO 2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-tolate century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid-and late 21st century.

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Section: Crop Yieldssupporting

confidence: 72%

Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

Dagnew

Gassman

Schoof

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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show abstract

“…Although conceptually higher prices may also lead to expansion of acreage under cultivation of a crop to a less fertile land, and hence reducing yield, several empirical studies have shown that the positive effect outweighs this negative effect (Haile et al 2016;Miao et al 2016). Crop price volatility, on the other hand, acts as a disincentive for production because it introduces output price risk.…”

Section: Price Change and Volatilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given these patterns we would expect a non-linear relation with production. Some empirical evidence shows that population density reduces crop supply (Miao et al 2016). …”

Section: Price Change and Volatilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To this end, we apply the described FE panel data estimator while instrumenting all the price variables in each crop model. The literature suggests some potential instrument variables including lagged climate and crop stock variables (Miao et al 2016;Roberts and Schlenker 2013). We additionally use one-year lagged net-trade of each crop.…”

Section: Empirical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The third group of studiesincluding this study-investigates the impact of not only climate but also economic variables on crop production. These studies, including Weersink et al (2010), Huang and Khanna (2010), Hertel et al (2010), and Miao et al (2016), investigate the effect of climate variables on food supply and account for potential acreage and yield adjustments by controlling for responsiveness of farmers to expected input and output prices.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Impact of Climate Change, Weather Extremes, and Price Risk on Global Food Supply

Haile¹,

Wossen

Tesfaye

et al. 2017

EconDisCliCha

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We analyze the determinants of global crop production for maize, wheat, rice, and soybeans over the period . Using seasonal production data and price change and price volatility information at country level, as well as future climate data from 32 global circulation models, we project that climate change could reduce global crop production by 9% in the 2030s and by 23% in the 2050s. Climate change leads to 1-3% higher annual fluctuations of global crop production over the next four decades. We find strong, positive and statistically significant supply response to changing prices for all four crops. However, output price volatility, which signals risk to producers, reduces the supply of these key global agricultural staple crops-especially for wheat and maize. We find that climate change has significant adverse effects on production of the world's key staple crops. Especially, weather extremes-in terms of shocks in both temperature and precipitation-during crop growing months have detrimental impacts on the production of the abovementioned food crops. Weather extremes also exacerbate the year-to-year fluctuations of food availability, and thus may further increase price volatility with its adverse impacts on production and poor consumers. Combating climate change using both mitigation and adaptation technologies is therefore crucial for global production and hence food security.

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How Hard Did That Sting? Estimating the Economic Costs of Locust Attacks on Agricultural Production^†

Chatterjee¹

2020

Applied Eco Perspectives Pol

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Estimates suggest that a swarm of desert locusts can consume food grains sufficient to feed up to 35,000 people. Despite the potential disaster that these migratory pests can bring about, there is no credible economic estimate of the actual damage caused by locust upsurges to agricultural production. This article takes advantage of plausibly exogenous variation generated by the timing of locust upsurges and geographic variation due to their migration patterns to estimate the impact of an upsurge on crop yields using a large district level panel dataset from India covering more than 200 districts over 45 years. I find that locust upsurges have no impact on rice yields but can lead to a decline of up to 0.2 tons of wheat production per hectare. Given that locusts attack India from the western side and majority of the rice is produced in the east and south, such findings are not surprising. There are two ways to interpret the estimated effect size in terms of how hard the locust upsurges can sting the economy. First, in terms of the economic costs, the magnitude of the effects are around 12% compared to mean per‐hectare production of wheat. Second, in terms of accounting costs, back of the envelope calculations suggest losses up to US$3 billion. Policy implications include recognizing locust upsurges as natural disasters and providing demand‐based market instruments such as locust insurance to help farmers hedge against this risk.

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Responsiveness of Crop Yield and Acreage to Prices and Climate

Cited by 148 publications

References 41 publications

Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

Impact of Climate Change, Weather Extremes, and Price Risk on Global Food Supply

How Hard Did That Sting? Estimating the Economic Costs of Locust Attacks on Agricultural Production^†

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Responsiveness of Crop Yield and Acreage to Prices and Climate

Cited by 148 publications

References 41 publications

Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

Impact of Climate Change, Weather Extremes, and Price Risk on Global Food Supply

How Hard Did That Sting? Estimating the Economic Costs of Locust Attacks on Agricultural Production†

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

How Hard Did That Sting? Estimating the Economic Costs of Locust Attacks on Agricultural Production^†